Balanced scales: Left scale - Oversized USD/US equities. Right scale - Basket with gold bar, commodity, world currencies, EM skyline, bond coupon.
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Diversified asset allocation and US fiscal dominance

Volatile post-pandemic macro and US fiscal dominance risks, amid a historic H1-2025 Dollar selloff, are exposing the limits of passive, US-heavy indices. Investors should diversify toward markets less constrained by debt-shadowed central banks.

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Sweden and China two flags together. Textile cloth fabric texture.
Weekly investor research

China holds the cards in Stockholm

Europe & Japan face 15% US tariffs despite 'deals'. China may delay 12 Aug deadline by 90 days. India, S. Korea, Thailand talks ongoing. IMF backs Argentina. Brazil FDI weak. Mexico aids Pemex. Poland reshuffles. Türkiye upgraded. Nigeria, Zambia progress
Made in China. Cardboard boxes with text made in China and Chinese flag on the roller conveyor.
Weekly investor research

Chinese policymakers focusing on industrial overcapacity

CN supply boost stocks; Trump-Powell rumor fades. Strong US EPS. ID 19 % US tariff; TH zero tariff 90 % US goods; Moodys upgrades AR to Caa1; CO holds, peso top LatAm; UA confirms Svyrydenko PM; EG expands VAT; Fitch eyes ZM upgrade if 90% creditors agree

Latest Insights

Trump flag flying with the sky and clouds in the background.
Market Commentary

Trump 2.0: Implications for Emerging Markets

While Donald Trump’s election victory was far from a surprise, the strength of the mandate he won was impressive. Trump captured all seven of the pivotal swing states needed for Electoral College success, the Republicans flipped the Senate and are...
American flags near the Air & Space Museum in Washington, D.C.
Weekly investor research

EM markets resilient as dust settles on US election

Trump’s big win delivered the expected macro reaction; for one day. Geopolitical discussions begin with Trump and Zelensky, and (probably) Trump and Putin. Qatar request Hamas leaders leave Doha. China deliver RMN10tn in fiscal support for local...
Map of Iowa State.
Weekly investor research

Iowa poll shakes up Trump bets in markets

Softer US labour data contrasted with higher inflation, consumption and wider UK budget deficit, which kept yields under pressure last week. A surprising poll in Iowa showed Harris leading in a perceived ‘red’ state. China expected to unveil large...
A stunning sunset photo showcases offshore oil drilling in Huntington Beach, California, with vivid hues casting a glow on industrial equipment.
The Emerging View

The impact of oil prices on EM sovereign credit

Today, oil exposure among Emerging Market (EM) nations is very diversified. Of course, there are major EM oil exporters, but most countries are net energy importers. In weighted terms, only 17% of the JP Morgan index of EM sovereign bonds (EMBI GD) are...
Vibrant sunrise over the National Mall in Washington DC.
Market Commentary

Dispatch from DC

The Autumn IMF meetings present an opportunity for investors to engage with IMF authorities, central bankers, finance ministers, technocrats, political consultants, economist and peers. The state of the global economy and the main risks and...
An American flag flying on the Riverwalk late in the day with the Trump Tower in the background.
Weekly investor research

Trump trade shaping markets one week from US election

UST yields continued to climb higher on economic outperformance and ‘Trump trade.’ Key Chinese fiscal legislators announced they will meet between the 4-8th of November. Oil sold off 5% on Sunday evening, after Israel chose not to strike Iranian oil...
Sikkim India Tibet Plateau China
Weekly investor research

China’s policy “u-turn” reaffirmed

Higher US CPI and jobless claims led to a steepening of the yield curve. China shed some more light on stimulus plans, without revealing scope of fiscal expansion, yet. Korean bonds will enter the FTSE WGBI and Indian bonds on the FTSE EM GBI in Q4 2025
Aerial view on country road through the mixed forest in autumn colours.
Equities

Investing in Emerging Markets excluding China

China has the world’s second largest economy, and the country’s rise to prominence has been rapid. This has triggered some investors to consider China and Emerging Markets (EM) ex-China separately, similar to other dominant global powers like the US...
Aerial view Crude oil tanker under cargo operations on typical shore station with clearly visible mechanical loading arms and pipeline infrastructure.
Weekly investor research

EM spreads tighten as yields and oil go higher

Sharp increase in yields post strong labour market report and increase in oil prices. Chinese stocks outperform again ahead of end of Golden Week holiday. Iran missile strikes against Israel targeted civilian areas, further escalating the regional..
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Don’t stand in the way when China goes big

PBoC cut policy rates by 20bps, reserve requirement ratio by 50bps, RMB 700bn allocated for stock buybacks. Politburo pledged to support the housing market and signalled fiscal support. Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah...
Polygonal representation of a bull symbolizes the strength and upward momentum of a bull market.
The Emerging View

A new bull market cycle in Emerging Market equities

A decade of tech-driven US stock market outperformance has contrasted with tepid returns for Emerging Market indices. But past returns are not an indicator of future performance, and the drivers of markets over the next decade will be quite different...
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Positive credit rating momentum continues in EM

US Fed’s 50bp cut led to risk rally last week. Major escalation of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Dovish moves from Chinese central bank. Sri Lanka elect left-wing President, sparking concerns over IMF programme. Brazil hike 25bp...
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Brazil set to buck the trend and hike rates

60% probability of FOMC cutting 50bp now priced. More weak demand data from China. Javier Milei exercised veto power of a fiscal expansion policy in Argentina. Sri Lanka election outcome meaningful for IMF programme. IMF set to meet this month...
Sculpture of the Angel of Independence
Weekly investor research

Mexican judiciary reform clears another hurdle, but more remain

Soft US economic data set the tone for asset prices. Oil prices hit yearly lows and kept plunging. Frontier stocks continue to outperform, illustrating their diversification benefits. Chinese monetary intervention supporting yuan. Mexican judiciary...
Fed rate cuts & EM Equities
Video

WEBINAR: Fed rate cuts & EM Equities

Dhiren Shah (Lead Portfolio Manager of the Ashmore EM Equity Fund) and Gustavo Medeiros (Ashmore’s Global Head of Research) discuss Fed rate cuts & EM Equities.