Strait of Hormuz
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The Strait of Hormuz & the Vix shock

Emerging View examines the Strait of Hormuz tail-risk, rising energy prices and supply strains, comparing today’s backdrop with past oil shocks and assessing what the Iran-US conflict could mean for emerging market assets.

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Weekly investor research

Regime change in Hungary and positive election results in Peru

Markets focused on politics, energy and AI: Hungary and Peru point to more market-friendly outcomes, US pressure on Iranian oil raises risk, AI-led growth remains strong from the US to Korea, while Colombia was downgraded and Turkey’s outlook softened.
Video

WEBINAR: How are EM Frontier debt markets holding up?

Watch the replay of this insightful webinar where Gustavo Medeiros, Global Head of Research, and Alexis de Mones, Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets Debt, discussed their views on the resilience of EM Frontier debt markets in the current environment.
Weekly investor research

Risk asset recovery on thin ice

Risk assets have rebounded since last Tuesday, but risks remain high as Trump’s Iran deadline looms. Strong US payrolls suggest the cyclical upswing remains intact, while several EM policymakers kept a cautious stance on rates, fuel and energy.

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Falling GBP
Weekly investor research

Escalation or cease-fire?

Russia's Vladimir Putin took an unpopular decision and mobilised 300k new conscripts to the army as Donbass holds a referendum on whether to become part of the Russian territory. Developed countries have been through a full-blown currency crisis which...
Ashmore video
Video

'EM in 10' update - September 2022

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.
Embankment in Kharkiv
Weekly investor research

Ukraine takes back Kharkiv

The Ukrainian army regained a large territory in the Northeast as the Russian army fled direct confrontation. Argentina’s exporters increased sales of soybeans. Car production improved in Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina. China aggregate financing was...
Think Tank 2022
Video

Outlook and opportunities in emerging market debt

Gustavo Medeiros, Head of Global Macro Research at Ashmore, shared his global macro-outlook views, as well as potential implications for Emerging Market assets, including China real estate bonds - at the Think Tank investment conference.
Judge gavel and Chile flag
Weekly investor research

Chileans reject new constitution and Europe faces an energy crisis

European energy prices remain elevated as Gazprom shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The manufacturing PMIs again showed for a much more resilient picture across Emerging Market countries. Chileans rejected the new constitution. China grapples with...
Nuclear power plant
Weekly investor research

Energy politics: regulating the temperature

Energy politics move again to the fore, while concerns about Ukraine’s nuclear power plant force rare agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Argentina posts good fiscal numbers and looks at its exchange rate. Brazil’s presidential election heats up...
Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, oil on canvas painting by Viktor Vasnetsov, 1887.
Video

WEBINAR: Plague, War, Famine and the Fed.

The Four Horsemen of Macro Apocalypse, and Opportunities in Emerging Markets - How the four main headwinds for equities are fading and our view on where to be positioned.
Policy makers
Weekly investor research

Busy summer for policy-makers

The momentary easing in financial conditions seen in July is now behind us. Global economic challenges continue to demand a decisive response and policy-makers everywhere must make difficult choices. Europe is under pressure from high gas prices, while...
ESG
The Emerging View

The reality of ESG integration in Emerging Markets equity

Successful investing in Emerging Markets is inextricably linked to a deep understanding of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors. Developing countries are likely to face a disproportionate impact from some of the sustainability challenges...
Ashmore video
Video

'EM in 10' update - August 2022

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.
Recession next exit
Weekly investor research

Mixed news flow across EM as DM PMIs flashed recession

The flash PMIs declined more than expected in Europe and the United States, with most forward-looking indicators below 50.0 levels. Russia agreed a deal to safeguard exports of grain from Ukraine and restarted gas flows from Nord Stream 1 pipeline but...
Grain cargo ship
Weekly investor research

The war of attrition grinds on in Ukraine

The war of attrition grinds on in Ukraine as Europe tries to normalise gas flows and open ports for grains. China’s challenges were compounded by boycotts on mortgages for unfinished projects. Argentina’s finance minister announced its new economic plans.
Ashmore video
Video

'EM in 10' update - July 2022

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.