Balanced scales: Left scale - Oversized USD/US equities. Right scale - Basket with gold bar, commodity, world currencies, EM skyline, bond coupon.
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Diversified asset allocation and US fiscal dominance

Volatile post-pandemic macro and US fiscal dominance risks, amid a historic H1-2025 Dollar selloff, are exposing the limits of passive, US-heavy indices. Investors should diversify toward markets less constrained by debt-shadowed central banks.

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Sweden and China two flags together. Textile cloth fabric texture.
Weekly investor research

China holds the cards in Stockholm

Europe & Japan face 15% US tariffs despite 'deals'. China may delay 12 Aug deadline by 90 days. India, S. Korea, Thailand talks ongoing. IMF backs Argentina. Brazil FDI weak. Mexico aids Pemex. Poland reshuffles. Türkiye upgraded. Nigeria, Zambia progress

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Emerging view
The Emerging View

Argentina Q&A

Argentina once again finds itself in the grip of financial turmoil.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The case for EM local currency debt

The establishment of local bond markets has been the single most important structural change in Emerging Markets (EM) in the past quarter of a century.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The case for EM external debt

The case for Emerging Markets external debt is solid. The long-term risk-reward has been and remains compelling. The outlook over the medium-term also favours the asset class as the unwinding of distortions in global bond markets attributable to Quantitat
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Beware of Big Fiscal

Picture yourself in charge of the government of a rich country.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The 2019-2023 EM fixed income outlook The Emerging View

Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income should deliver compounded returns ranging from 30% to 60% in Dollar terms over the 2019-2023 investment horizon as markets revert to unwinding the so-called QE trades
Emerging view
The Emerging View

US late cycle dynamics and EM bonds

The recent volatility in US stocks may be a warning that the US business cycle expansion is moving into its late stages.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Convergence, Big Time

A new study shows strong empirical evidence in favour of Emerging Markets (EM) economic convergence, which is arguably the single most important fundamental rationale for allocating to the EM asset class.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Déjà vu 2002

The 2018 sell-off in EM local markets is more than a mere conventional ‘buy the dip’ opportunity.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The EM equity universe: 7 implications of evolution

The size of the Emerging Markets (EM) equity universe is significant. It is evolving quickly and becoming more sophisticated as EM broaden, deepen and liberalise, better reflecting their underlying economic growth drivers.