Trump threatens 10% tariffs on goods from 8 European nations from 1 Feb, rising to 25% by 1 Jun unless Greenland sale talks advance. China posts record surplus; FX flows hint USD weakening. US CPI softer; Argentina/Brazil updates; UAE assets up 23%.
EM assets keep outperforming as US jobs data softens. Powell faces DOJ subpoena. Trump ordered Fannie/Freddie to buy $200bn MBS, pushing 30y yields down. Iran protests lifted oil; US shielded Venezuela funds; Argentina $3bn repo; Japan snap poll talk.
US operation in Venezuela seized Maduro; AI rally renewed. Hassett tipped as Trump’s next Fed chair. Russian crude exports hold up via Asia; Korea offers repatriation tax breaks to support won. Argentina passes Milei budget; Fitch: Ukraine up, Gabon down.
The finance ministers of 16 African countries requested a 2 year suspension of payments to debt owed to International Financial Institutions (IFIs), but said debt relief should not be conditional upon suspension of payments on Eurobonds.
The recently launched G20 initiative to provide debt relief for poorer Emerging Markets (EM) countries may be well-meaning, but it is also seriously misguided. In particular, the proposal fails on two counts.
As of 27 April 2020, eighteen times more people have died from coronavirus per million of population in developed countries (DMs) than in Emerging Markets (EM).
The tendency for global capital to flee ‘risky’ EM countries indiscriminately in favour of ‘risk free’ developed markets during outbreaks of global risk aversion is one of the great international market failures of our time.