The Fed is tightening into an energy shock, a combination that has triggered EM crises before. This time the reaction has been muted. We explain why, and the four questions that will shape the outlook from here.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round lead makes a political transition likely, and his team’s fiscal plan could open a path back to investment grade. We also look at France, where 10-year yields hit their highest since the GFC.

Real yields on EM local currency bonds are close to 15-year highs and the benchmark is investment grade on average, yet the asset class remains under-owned. The September Market Commentary sets out the opportunity from here.