Seoul City skyline
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

South Korea in focus

Korea runs a current account surplus yet the won sits at a 13-year low. We unpack the engineered offshoring behind it, why the policy is now reversing, and why we think the setup for Korean equities looks the strongest since 2007.

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The “no war, no peace, no oil” status lives on

Hormuz stalemate as the US rejects Iran's counterproposal. Bank Indonesia rolls out a stabilisation package, Modi calls for FX-preserving austerity, JPMorgan lifts its Kospi bull case to 10,000, and Fitch upgrades Argentina to 'B-'.
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The semiconductor super cycle roars on

Iran-US backchannels continue as Tehran submits a new proposal, while semiconductor stocks extend a stretched rally. EM signals were mixed, with contained US inflation expectations, Hungary improving and Philippines downgraded.

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EM and the big Biden growth rotation

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Vaccine developments, big improvements in economic activity and more benign geopolitics bode very well for returns across EM markets in 2021, notably for EM equities.
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