Aerial drone view of beautiful caribbean tropical island Cayo Levantado beach with palms and boat. Bacardi Island, Dominican Republic.
By Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...

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Federal Reserve - Central Banking
Weekly investor research

Weak US payrolls all but assure a September rate cut

Weak US payrolls point to a Sept Fed cut; US10Y ~4%. Senate set to confirm Stephen Miran as temporary Fed chair. French PM Bayrou likely ousted; Japan’s Ishiba resigns. OPEC+ to add 137k b/d in Oct. Poland cuts 25bp. Argentina midterms setback for Milei.
Images of the NANAY River and its large floodable forests that are home to a diversity of fauna and flora. It is a popular place for tourists to get away from the city and delve into nature deep in the Amazon rainforest of Peru.
Weekly investor research

Brazil’s inflation in decline

US data steady; focus shifts to jobs. Appeals court nixes “reciprocal tariffs” (SCOTUS pending). Ukraine ramps refinery strikes. Indonesia protests. Thailand PM dismissed. Brazil Aug deflation; Türkiye Q2 +4.8% growth; Egypt cuts rates 200bps.
The beautiful, colorful city of Oaxaca
Weekly investor research

More US policy drama, more EM outperformance

EM outperformance in Aug; US reflation vs EU deflation. Trump to fire Fed Gov Lisa Cook. FR PM Bayrou faces 8 Sep no-confidence. G7 little result. Bond funds +$97bn/4w. Argentina assets fall on scandal. Moody’s reviews PEMEX for upgrade after $12bn plan.

Latest Insights

Ashmore video
Video

'EM in 10' update - November 2022

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.
Brazil Elections 2022
Weekly investor research

Threats, or tricks!

Former President Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva pulled a trick, winning the presidential election for third time with 50.9% of valid votes, despite losing the elections in four out of five regions. Developed world central banks are handling threats in the...
Great Hall of the People in Beijing China
Weekly investor research

Xi Jinping consolidates power

The Chinese politburo is now tightly controlled by Xi Jinping. Argentina fiscal and external numbers were better than expected. Incumbent Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is rising in polls for the runoff next Sunday 30 October. Colombian Finance...
IMF letters on grass
Weekly investor research

IMF sees better GDP growth in EM

The IMF has kept its global economic growth forecast for 2022 unchanged at 3.2% but highlighted better EM growth. Russia aims at Ukraine infrastructure. Brazil had the third consecutive month of deflation. China’s 20th Party Congress started Sunday as...
War this way. Peace that way.
Weekly investor research

War or Peace?

Russia on the backfoot as the plot thickens in Ukraine. The OPEC+ agreed to cut its production quota by 2m barrels of oil per day. The global manufacturing PMI is still on a declining trend, but several EM countries are bucking the trend and...
Brazil elections
Weekly investor research

Brazilian presidential elections tighter than expected

Russia annexed four Ukrainian provinces after a staged referendum, but the Ukrainian army re-takes important territories on the ground. Incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro performed better than expected in the presidential election in Brazil.
Falling GBP
Weekly investor research

Escalation or cease-fire?

Russia's Vladimir Putin took an unpopular decision and mobilised 300k new conscripts to the army as Donbass holds a referendum on whether to become part of the Russian territory. Developed countries have been through a full-blown currency crisis which...
Ashmore video
Video

'EM in 10' update - September 2022

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.
Embankment in Kharkiv
Weekly investor research

Ukraine takes back Kharkiv

The Ukrainian army regained a large territory in the Northeast as the Russian army fled direct confrontation. Argentina’s exporters increased sales of soybeans. Car production improved in Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina. China aggregate financing was...
Think Tank 2022
Video

Outlook and opportunities in emerging market debt

Gustavo Medeiros, Head of Global Macro Research at Ashmore, shared his global macro-outlook views, as well as potential implications for Emerging Market assets, including China real estate bonds - at the Think Tank investment conference.
Judge gavel and Chile flag
Weekly investor research

Chileans reject new constitution and Europe faces an energy crisis

European energy prices remain elevated as Gazprom shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The manufacturing PMIs again showed for a much more resilient picture across Emerging Market countries. Chileans rejected the new constitution. China grapples with...
Nuclear power plant
Weekly investor research

Energy politics: regulating the temperature

Energy politics move again to the fore, while concerns about Ukraine’s nuclear power plant force rare agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Argentina posts good fiscal numbers and looks at its exchange rate. Brazil’s presidential election heats up...
Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, oil on canvas painting by Viktor Vasnetsov, 1887.
Video

WEBINAR: Plague, War, Famine and the Fed.

The Four Horsemen of Macro Apocalypse, and Opportunities in Emerging Markets - How the four main headwinds for equities are fading and our view on where to be positioned.
Policy makers
Weekly investor research

Busy summer for policy-makers

The momentary easing in financial conditions seen in July is now behind us. Global economic challenges continue to demand a decisive response and policy-makers everywhere must make difficult choices. Europe is under pressure from high gas prices, while...