By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The AI Supercycle and Bottlenecks: A Multi-year Tailwind for EM

As AI compute demand scales, the worry has shifted from overbuilding to scarcity. Can energy and chip supply keep pace, or will bottlenecks throttle the capex cycle? We map the constraints and their implications for emerging markets.

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WEBINAR: Emerging Markets: beyond the AI trade

Watch the replay: Gustavo Medeiros (Global Head of Research) and Dhiren Shah (Head of Emerging Markets Equity Strategy) discuss their views on EM opportunities, whether the AI trade has room to run and what it could mean for countries, sectors and stocks.
Weekly investor research

The right edges ahead in the Colombian presidential race

A rightward tide is reshaping Latin American politics: De La Espriella tops Colombia's first round, Fujimori leads Peru's runoff polls, and Caputo predicts a comfortable Milei re-election in Argentina.
Weekly investor research

Deal or no deal?

The US strikes Iranian military assets after Trump signals a deal is close. Aramco preps its largest privatisation to date, South Korea seeds a sovereign wealth fund with semiconductor tax revenue, and UAE investment in the US tops USD 1trn.

Latest Insights

Big metal toy manufacturing machine
Weekly investor research

EM stocks and PMIs outperformed

EM Purchasing Managers’ Index outperformed DM’s as China’s economic activity remained lukewarm due to the zero covid-19 policy. EM stocks outperformed led by China as hopes of a Chinese reopening increased. Brazilian assets outperformed the most as...
Ashmore video
Video

'EM in 10' update - November 2022

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.
Brazil Elections 2022
Weekly investor research

Threats, or tricks!

Former President Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva pulled a trick, winning the presidential election for third time with 50.9% of valid votes, despite losing the elections in four out of five regions. Developed world central banks are handling threats in the...
Great Hall of the People in Beijing China
Weekly investor research

Xi Jinping consolidates power

The Chinese politburo is now tightly controlled by Xi Jinping. Argentina fiscal and external numbers were better than expected. Incumbent Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is rising in polls for the runoff next Sunday 30 October. Colombian Finance...
IMF letters on grass
Weekly investor research

IMF sees better GDP growth in EM

The IMF has kept its global economic growth forecast for 2022 unchanged at 3.2% but highlighted better EM growth. Russia aims at Ukraine infrastructure. Brazil had the third consecutive month of deflation. China’s 20th Party Congress started Sunday as...
War this way. Peace that way.
Weekly investor research

War or Peace?

Russia on the backfoot as the plot thickens in Ukraine. The OPEC+ agreed to cut its production quota by 2m barrels of oil per day. The global manufacturing PMI is still on a declining trend, but several EM countries are bucking the trend and...
Brazil elections
Weekly investor research

Brazilian presidential elections tighter than expected

Russia annexed four Ukrainian provinces after a staged referendum, but the Ukrainian army re-takes important territories on the ground. Incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro performed better than expected in the presidential election in Brazil.
Falling GBP
Weekly investor research

Escalation or cease-fire?

Russia's Vladimir Putin took an unpopular decision and mobilised 300k new conscripts to the army as Donbass holds a referendum on whether to become part of the Russian territory. Developed countries have been through a full-blown currency crisis which...
Ashmore video
Video

'EM in 10' update - September 2022

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.
Embankment in Kharkiv
Weekly investor research

Ukraine takes back Kharkiv

The Ukrainian army regained a large territory in the Northeast as the Russian army fled direct confrontation. Argentina’s exporters increased sales of soybeans. Car production improved in Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina. China aggregate financing was...
Think Tank 2022
Video

Outlook and opportunities in emerging market debt

Gustavo Medeiros, Head of Global Macro Research at Ashmore, shared his global macro-outlook views, as well as potential implications for Emerging Market assets, including China real estate bonds - at the Think Tank investment conference.
Judge gavel and Chile flag
Weekly investor research

Chileans reject new constitution and Europe faces an energy crisis

European energy prices remain elevated as Gazprom shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The manufacturing PMIs again showed for a much more resilient picture across Emerging Market countries. Chileans rejected the new constitution. China grapples with...
Nuclear power plant
Weekly investor research

Energy politics: regulating the temperature

Energy politics move again to the fore, while concerns about Ukraine’s nuclear power plant force rare agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Argentina posts good fiscal numbers and looks at its exchange rate. Brazil’s presidential election heats up...
Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, oil on canvas painting by Viktor Vasnetsov, 1887.
Video

WEBINAR: Plague, War, Famine and the Fed.

The Four Horsemen of Macro Apocalypse, and Opportunities in Emerging Markets - How the four main headwinds for equities are fading and our view on where to be positioned.