Strait of Hormuz
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The Strait of Hormuz & the Vix shock

Emerging View examines the Strait of Hormuz tail-risk, rising energy prices and supply strains, comparing today’s backdrop with past oil shocks and assessing what the Iran-US conflict could mean for emerging market assets.

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Weekly investor research

Regime change in Hungary and positive election results in Peru

Markets focused on politics, energy and AI: Hungary and Peru point to more market-friendly outcomes, US pressure on Iranian oil raises risk, AI-led growth remains strong from the US to Korea, while Colombia was downgraded and Turkey’s outlook softened.
Video

WEBINAR: How are EM Frontier debt markets holding up?

Watch the replay of this insightful webinar where Gustavo Medeiros, Global Head of Research, and Alexis de Mones, Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets Debt, discussed their views on the resilience of EM Frontier debt markets in the current environment.
Weekly investor research

Risk asset recovery on thin ice

Risk assets have rebounded since last Tuesday, but risks remain high as Trump’s Iran deadline looms. Strong US payrolls suggest the cyclical upswing remains intact, while several EM policymakers kept a cautious stance on rates, fuel and energy.

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Market commentary
Market Commentary

The merits of Ecuador’s approach

Ecuador has put forward a plan for dealing with an unprecedented triple shock of lower oil prices, coronavirus and loss of access to financial markets.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

The final shock

Lebanon announced a moratorium on its sovereign debt.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Volatility and opportunity

Ecuadorian bonds experienced considerable price volatility due to inaccurate journalism.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Chinese bonds deliver in bear markets

Chinese local currency government bonds are entering JP Morgan’s EM local bond index, the GBI-EM GD, at the end of this month.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

The option value of waiting

High levels of uncertainty are not only associated with a scarcity of facts, but also with high trading costs.