Aerial drone view of beautiful caribbean tropical island Cayo Levantado beach with palms and boat. Bacardi Island, Dominican Republic.
By Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...

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Spaced mixture of mine, mining ores, commodities, metals, coal. Background concept, texture, rocks. Variety, mixed, many, multi-colored, colorful.
Weekly investor research

China plays its trump card (rare earths); Trump replays his (tariffs)

China tightens rare-earth exports; Trump eyes 100% tariffs. US shutdown ongoing. Oil falls; Gaza ceasefire. China exports firm, domestic/property weak. $20bn US-Argentina swap. Brazil tax reform; inflation down. Kazakhstan +150bps. Egypt & Ghana upgrades.

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The merits of Ecuador’s approach

Ecuador has put forward a plan for dealing with an unprecedented triple shock of lower oil prices, coronavirus and loss of access to financial markets.
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The final shock

Lebanon announced a moratorium on its sovereign debt.
Weekly investor research
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Volatility and opportunity

Ecuadorian bonds experienced considerable price volatility due to inaccurate journalism.
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Chinese bonds deliver in bear markets

Chinese local currency government bonds are entering JP Morgan’s EM local bond index, the GBI-EM GD, at the end of this month.
Weekly investor research
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The option value of waiting

High levels of uncertainty are not only associated with a scarcity of facts, but also with high trading costs.