By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Emerging market resilience tested by energy shock and Fed hikes

The Fed is tightening into an energy shock, a combination that has triggered EM crises before. This time the reaction has been muted. We explain why, and the four questions that will shape the outlook from here.

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Weekly investor research

Bond yields fall as AI financing concerns drive risk-off move

Core CPI surprised to the upside, yet Treasuries rallied as semiconductor and AI-credit stress drove a flight from risk. Plus: Saudi Arabia under daily Houthi fire, the IMF’s India upgrade, MSCI’s Indonesia warning and Bolsonaro’s narrowing lead.
Weekly investor research

US CPI up next for bonds, while stocks pivot to Q3 earnings

Core CPI should stay benign even as the headline rises, while Q3 earnings must justify a market concentrated in AI. Plus: Trump’s energy ceasefire, Bolsonaro’s poll lead, Malaysia’s budget and Ghana’s upgrade.

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Weekly investor research

Transitions

Transitions are noisy, but interesting from an investment perspective.
Market Commentary

Missing the big picture on IMF lending

In a recent opinion piece in the Financial Times, Ousmene Mandeng makes the point that the lending programmes of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are defective.
Weekly investor research

Another VIX shock suggests opportunities in EM equities

Last week the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX as it is more commonly known, spiked by 59% to 33.1, impacting asset prices which, in our opinion, make EM equities and EM local bonds look attractive.
Market Commentary

EM and the big Biden growth rotation

In addition to bridging deep social divisions in American society, President Joe Biden faces two important policy challenges. One is to eradicate coronavirus. The other is to turn the economy and voter sentiment.