By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

EM Sovereign Debt: The ultra-marathon runner goes on

Inflation has peaked, the capex supercycle rolls on, and EM fundamentals keep improving. We explain why EM sovereign debt, yielding close to 7%, remains one of the most attractively valued asset classes today.

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WEBINAR: EM Sovereign Debt: The yields are all-right

Watch the replay of this insightful webinar where Gustavo Medeiros (Global Head of Research) and Christian Schniewind (Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets Debt) discuss their views on EM sovereign debt dynamics.
Weekly investor research

Peak hawkishness

Oil at USD 70 a barrel and softer US payrolls may signal peak hawkishness. The semiconductor rally takes a breather, the World Bank upgrades Vietnam to upper-middle-income status, Brazil lifts its 2026 inflation forecast and Colombia hikes rates to 12.0%.
Weekly investor research

Falling oil prices bring nominal rates lower and real rates higher

Falling oil prices are pulling inflation expectations and nominal rates lower, while resilient US growth lifts real rates higher. We also cover dramatic semiconductor volatility, record Korean chipmaker capex and Vietnam's expansionary fiscal plans.

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A year of two halves
The Emerging View

2023 Outlook for Emerging Markets - A year of two halves

Emerging Market (EM) assets were subject to three strong headwinds in 2022, namely, China’s zero Covid-19 and real estate crisis, aggressive interest rate tightening from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Two out of...
Ashmore video
Video

EM in 10 - 2023 Outlook summary

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, summarises the recently published 2023 Outlooks for Emerging Markets.
Shanghai China
Weekly investor research

EM PMIs still outperforming as China eases mobility further

Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for Emerging Markets (EM) declined very slightly, contrasting with the deterioration on developed world PMIs. Europe agreed on capping the price of Russian oil. Large Chinese cities eased mobility restrictions.
Flashing red light
Weekly investor research

Flashing red PMIs already signalling a US recession in early 2023

Flashing red Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) are signalling a US recession in early 2023. China protesters took to the streets as local government restrictions conflicted with 20 new guidelines issued early in the month. The Peruvian president...
Kazakhstan flag
Weekly investor research

Tokayev elected president of Kazakhstan for another 7 years

A clear result in the Kazakh election contrasts with the hung parliament in Malaysia. The Indonesian Central Bank hiked its policy rate by 50bps to 5.25% - another move fostering macroeconomic stability. China economic data was soft and zero-covid took...
Big metal toy manufacturing machine
Weekly investor research

EM stocks and PMIs outperformed

EM Purchasing Managers’ Index outperformed DM’s as China’s economic activity remained lukewarm due to the zero covid-19 policy. EM stocks outperformed led by China as hopes of a Chinese reopening increased. Brazilian assets outperformed the most as...
Ashmore video
Video

'EM in 10' update - November 2022

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.
Brazil Elections 2022
Weekly investor research

Threats, or tricks!

Former President Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva pulled a trick, winning the presidential election for third time with 50.9% of valid votes, despite losing the elections in four out of five regions. Developed world central banks are handling threats in the...
Great Hall of the People in Beijing China
Weekly investor research

Xi Jinping consolidates power

The Chinese politburo is now tightly controlled by Xi Jinping. Argentina fiscal and external numbers were better than expected. Incumbent Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is rising in polls for the runoff next Sunday 30 October. Colombian Finance...
IMF letters on grass
Weekly investor research

IMF sees better GDP growth in EM

The IMF has kept its global economic growth forecast for 2022 unchanged at 3.2% but highlighted better EM growth. Russia aims at Ukraine infrastructure. Brazil had the third consecutive month of deflation. China’s 20th Party Congress started Sunday as...
War this way. Peace that way.
Weekly investor research

War or Peace?

Russia on the backfoot as the plot thickens in Ukraine. The OPEC+ agreed to cut its production quota by 2m barrels of oil per day. The global manufacturing PMI is still on a declining trend, but several EM countries are bucking the trend and...
Brazil elections
Weekly investor research

Brazilian presidential elections tighter than expected

Russia annexed four Ukrainian provinces after a staged referendum, but the Ukrainian army re-takes important territories on the ground. Incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro performed better than expected in the presidential election in Brazil.
Falling GBP
Weekly investor research

Escalation or cease-fire?

Russia's Vladimir Putin took an unpopular decision and mobilised 300k new conscripts to the army as Donbass holds a referendum on whether to become part of the Russian territory. Developed countries have been through a full-blown currency crisis which...