Strait of Hormuz
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The Strait of Hormuz & the Vix shock

Emerging View examines the Strait of Hormuz tail-risk, rising energy prices and supply strains, comparing today’s backdrop with past oil shocks and assessing what the Iran-US conflict could mean for emerging market assets.

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Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz with white graphic lines representing global shipping lanes and maritime traffic between the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
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Market relief as Trump signals progress in Iran negotiations

Trump gave Iran a short Hormuz ultimatum before a brief extension, as Iran hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan. Major central banks held rates with hawkish bias on energy risks, while EM policy diverged amid fuel, trade and election strains.
View across the Strait of Hormuz toward rugged mountains of the Musandam Peninsula in Oman. Small boats rest on the calm water beneath the arid landscape of the northern Arabian Peninsula.
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Strait of Hormuz disruption enters third week

Oil shock eased as Brent fell back below USD 100, but Hormuz disruption still hit supply and reserves. Brazil retail surprised positively, while Egypt saw record outflows and political strains deepened in Mexico and Brazil.

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EM PMIs still outperforming as China eases mobility further

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Flashing red PMIs already signalling a US recession in early 2023

Flashing red Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) are signalling a US recession in early 2023. China protesters took to the streets as local government restrictions conflicted with 20 new guidelines issued early in the month. The Peruvian president...
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EM stocks and PMIs outperformed

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'EM in 10' update - November 2022

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Threats, or tricks!

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IMF sees better GDP growth in EM

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War or Peace?

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Brazilian presidential elections tighter than expected

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Escalation or cease-fire?

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