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By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Latin America: Monroe Doctrine 2.0 amid a transition to the right

With politics shifting back towards the market-friendly right, earnings growth improving and the outlook for commodities becoming structurally bullish given the ongoing arms race for AI, defence and energy, Latin America is again back on investors’ radars

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USD weakness, JPY strength and more EM outperformance

Yen surged on US Treasury activity amid benign US inflation. India-EU trade and Colombia/Chile fiscal reforms highlight EM shifts. Global diplomacy saw US-Ukraine-Russia talks, while Fitch boosted Türkiye and Gabon resumed IMF engagement.

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Emerging market assets underperformed over the first four months of the year as market participants priced in a much more hawkish hiking cycle by the Fed. At the same time, higher interest rates differentials buoyed the greenback lead the US Dollar...
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Chinese economic activity was better than expected, but underlying sector data suggests weaker dynamics than meets the eye. Sri Lanka announced the suspension of debt service. Indian inflation surprised to the upside. Indonesian trade surplus rose...
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This piece reviews the background and impact of the exclusion of Russia and Belarus from the main Emerging Markets (EM) indices as well as the current market conditions and outlook for Russian and Ukrainian bonds.
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Global Manufacturing PMIs play into the stagflation narrative

Global Markit Manufacturing PMI indicators softened, as China underperformed due to targeted lockdowns in Shanghai, notably. The increase in ISM prices paid and the depressed level of supplier delivery times in the US Markit PMI provide further...
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The case for EM in a multipolar world

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a shock to the existing world order. From an economic perspective, the initial impact of the war is rising inflation given the importance of Russia and Ukraine in the supply of commodities to the world. The economic...