Aerial view at night of The Grand Palace, Bangkok, Thailand
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

A multi-year tailwind for EM assets

US exceptionalism, built on unsustainable fiscal policies, is under threat. Tariffs and budget dysfunction in Washington are driving high volatility in US equities, revealing the fragility behind past market strength.

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Weekly investor research

Markets remain calm after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

US bombed Iranian nuclear sites; low oil disruption risk priced. US data weakens; Fed sees 2 cuts in 2025. China to scrap most Africa tariffs. Thai coalition splits. Brazil hikes to 15%. Colombia ups 2025 borrowing. Ghana gets Fitch upgrade.
Dascht e Lut, Wüste, IranDasht-e Lut Iran, colored mountains Unesco world heritage site
Weekly investor research

Geopolitical risks spike again

Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites, lifting oil prices but not the dollar. US eyes easing China trade curbs for rare earths. EM debt saw $3.8bn inflows. Strong data from China, Korea. Loans for South Africa, Ecuador. Mexico signals 50bps cut.
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Weekly investor research

EM benefiting as investors vote with their feet

EM assets rose as investors rebalanced away from the US on trade hopes and soft data. Oil climbed on macro optimism. India cut rates 50bps. Vietnam growth seen at 6%. Brazil eyes deficit fixes. Colombia hit by political violence. Poland risk lingers.

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Video

'EM in 10' update - October 2021

Today we will be talking about the post-pandemic macro-economic environment. In particular, the outlook for global inflation and how Central banks should react to it.
Pile of documents
Weekly investor research

Rising policy uncertainty. Georgieva should stay, Powell may go

A number of senior politicians had their financial affairs exposed by the release of the Pandora Papers, while the managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, is under pressure after a report unveiled minor irregularities.
Scrap metal recycling facility
Weekly investor research

EM manufacturing PMI increased, DM declined

Emerging Markets (EM) Manufacturing PMI converged towards Developed Markets (DM). Brazilian exporters are hoarding US Dollars abroad due to political uncertainty. Chile’s Lower House approved another redemption from the pension system.
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Weekly investor research

Global PMIs shows supply chain bottlenecks persist

Global PMIs declined, dragged down by Covid-19 delta variant concerns as supply chain bottlenecks kept price pressures. The Brazilian Congress approved a tax reform as the government aims for a steep fiscal consolidation.
Wooden blocks with the word GDP
Market Commentary

EM 2021 real GDP growth revised higher

Sell-side economists revised real GDP growth higher in July across two-thirds of emerging markets (EM) and frontier markets (FM) countries, while lower revisions affected one-third of EM economies.