By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill, Simon Cooke
The Emerging View

Generating impact and returns through EM public debt markets

Global sustainability funding needs are overwhelmingly concentrated in emerging markets, yet impact capital still skews to developed markets. The September Emerging View sets out why EM public debt is the most scalable way to close the gap.

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Weekly investor research

AI safety and surging energy prices trigger risk-off mood

Markets price a 90% chance of a Fed hike this week even as CPI details stay benign, while Saudi Arabia shuts its East-West pipeline. Plus: Korea weighs a Hormuz deployment, Brazil’s biggest inflation drop since 2022 and Dangote’s Kenyan refinery.
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WEBINAR: India: The Uncorrelated Allocation

Watch the replay of this insightful webinar where Rashi Talwar, in conversation with Ben Underhill (Research Associate), discuss their views of the key themes in the Indian equity market and how Ashmore is positioning.

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Weekly investor research

The Fed delays the easing cycle while EM central banks press on

Chile, Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, and Ghana cut their policy rates. Egypt hiked by 200 basis points (bps), moving to an orthodox policy stance favoured by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as it stepped up its conversations to receive a fresh loan...
Weekly investor research

Less Dovish or More Hawkish?

The disruption in global shipping from Houthi attacks in the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb may have a larger than expected impact, if continued...
Weekly investor research

Taiwan: incumbent party wins election, but loses majority in Congress

Taiwan's Vice-President Lai Ching-te was elected President although the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost its Congress majority. Houthi disruptions in the Red Sea caused a spike in shipping costs. Despite an upside US consumer price index (CPI)...
Weekly investor research

More dovish Fed boosts EM debt towards year-end

The December meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) proved a pivotal moment for markets. Whilst the target policy rate was unchanged, the median forecast for the Fed funds rate at end-2024 fell from 5.1% in September to 4.6%, triggering...
The Emerging View

2024 Outlook: Resilience, Tails, and Inflections

Global Macro Summary: Resilience: In 2023, GDP growth surprised to the upside in several Emerging Market (EM) countries and recovered in China. In 2024, EM ex-China should remain supported as the Chinese GDP soft-landing resumes. Developed Market (DM) gro
Weekly investor research

Year-end rally quietens political noise…for now

The year-end rally continued to be very strong with US Treasuries this November recording their strongest monthly performance since 1985. Elsewhere, however, sources of political risk persist. Oil continued to sell off following the OPEC announcement...
Weekly investor research

The narrowing path

A solid November so far for market returns, but the path for an ongoing year-end large rally is narrowing. The respite in geopolitical tensions may also be short-lived. Israel agreed to a four-day cease fire in Gaza until Monday, but its Defence...
Weekly investor research

Libertarian economist Javier Milei is the new President of Argentina

The war in Gaza is imposing an unbearable cost to both human life and the respective economies. Walmart voiced a cautious outlook on the US consumer. China’s Xi Jinping delivered a hopeful message at the APEC forum in San Francisco. Inflation declined...
Weekly investor research

EM policy superiority recognised

Two articles from renowned economists highlighted Emerging Market (EM) policy superiority which has allowed EM local currency bonds to outperform Developed Market (DM) bonds over the last years. Indeed, inflation remained on a declining trend in most...
Weekly investor research

Yields lower, stocks higher… For longer?

A combination of events saw yields drop from elevated levels as stock prices benefited from lower real interest rates. South Korea’s short selling ban led stocks higher but will delay any upgrade to Developed Market (DM) status to 2025.