By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill, Simon Cooke
The Emerging View

Generating impact and returns through EM public debt markets

Global sustainability funding needs are overwhelmingly concentrated in emerging markets, yet impact capital still skews to developed markets. The September Emerging View sets out why EM public debt is the most scalable way to close the gap.

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Weekly investor research

AI safety and surging energy prices trigger risk-off mood

Markets price a 90% chance of a Fed hike this week even as CPI details stay benign, while Saudi Arabia shuts its East-West pipeline. Plus: Korea weighs a Hormuz deployment, Brazil’s biggest inflation drop since 2022 and Dangote’s Kenyan refinery.
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Weekly investor research

China focuses on domestic reforms and overseas cooperation

Hawkish holds/cuts in EM contrasted with dovish holds/cuts in DM. US economic growth softened in recent weeks, while EM growth remained resilient. The US is considering quadrupling tariffs on Chinese renewable technology imports. China’s Xi visited...
Weekly investor research

Two birds with one stone?: EM small caps

Short-term bond yields have a cap as rate hikes in the US are “unlikely”, supporting asset prices. A less hawkish message from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell drove stocks and bond prices higher last week. The US labour market is softening...
Weekly investor research

Chinese stocks breaking out as US stocks wobble

The JPY posted high volatility overnight as over-extended short JPY positions remain in place. Bank Indonesia hiked policy rates by 25bps in a surprise move, signalling dissatisfaction with the USD strength derived from JPY weakness. EU-China relations...
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Monetary policy divergence amid geopolitical volatility

The Fed walked away from cuts early in the summer, while the ECB remained in that camp. The US announced it would re-impose sanctions on Venezuela, but in a weaker format, a reflection of the current political realities. The US House of Representatives...
Weekly investor research

Iran launched an unprecedented strike against Israel

Israel reportedly suffered minimal damages from the telegraphed air strike from Iran. While the attack has raised the stakes in the Middle East, Iran signalled a willingness to de-escalate, a stance favoured by the United States (US).
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Policy direction unchanged post local elections in Türkiye

Monetary policy turned more cautious across the US and several Emerging Market (EM) countries, improving the risk-reward dynamics for bonds. Oil and gold prices increased as geopolitical risks remained elevated. EM manufacturing sentiment improved...
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Ready for the summer

The European Central Bank (ECB), US Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Bank of England (BoE) statements suggested they are all getting ready to cut policy rates in June. The central banks of Türkiye and Taiwan unexpectedly hiked policy rates, while...
The Emerging View

The big picture behind Egypt’s big deal

Egypt’s currency macro rebalancing was the main Frontier Markets event of the month. The plan involved several bilateral and multilateral deals, and policy announcements that seemed disconnected at first but suggest a deeper strategic move with big...
Weekly investor research

Will the Bank of Japan exit NIRP after eight years?

A central bank-heavy week, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) potentially departing from its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) after eight years. In the United States (US), investors will likely carefully analyse the statement, dot-plot estimates and...
Weekly investor research

All eyes on inflation data

Inflation rose above expectations in most Emerging Market (EM) countries. Inflation is at far from concerning levels, but may slow down the pace of rate cuts in a few countries in our view. Last week, US Treasury (UST) yields declined after the...
Weekly investor research

Frontier markets drive EM Sovereign debt returns

The G-20 talked up a soft global economic landing, despite many risks. Inflation rebounded in January for the US and surprised to the upside in the Eurozone in February, which led to a re-pricing on the number of policy rate cuts implied in interest...
The Emerging View

An EM ex-China manufacturing renaissance

Since its accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China has posed formidable competition for other countries in the manufacturing sector. The country’s rapid ascent since the turn of the century has seen it emerge as the dominant force...
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Hawkish FOMC minutes meet AI exuberance

The minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were more hawkish than initially expected. Artificial Intelligence (AI) exuberance has brought Nvidia valuations to extreme levels, but value may yet be found across its Asian...
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Prabowo’s landslide victory is positive in the short term

General Prabowo Subianto won the Indonesian presidential election in the first round. Domestic travel and tourism spending hit records during the Chinese New Year. China has been exporting deflation to the world, regardless of the state of the local...
Weekly investor research

EM Asia regulators acting to boost cheap equity market valuations

Stock markets and bond yields rose last week, led by strong economic activity numbers. Israel rebuffed a ceasefire proposal and attacked Gaza’s southernmost city of Rafah. China replaced its securities regulator, a sign that measures to boost the stock...