Trump threatens 10% tariffs on goods from 8 European nations from 1 Feb, rising to 25% by 1 Jun unless Greenland sale talks advance. China posts record surplus; FX flows hint USD weakening. US CPI softer; Argentina/Brazil updates; UAE assets up 23%.
EM assets keep outperforming as US jobs data softens. Powell faces DOJ subpoena. Trump ordered Fannie/Freddie to buy $200bn MBS, pushing 30y yields down. Iran protests lifted oil; US shielded Venezuela funds; Argentina $3bn repo; Japan snap poll talk.
US operation in Venezuela seized Maduro; AI rally renewed. Hassett tipped as Trump’s next Fed chair. Russian crude exports hold up via Asia; Korea offers repatriation tax breaks to support won. Argentina passes Milei budget; Fitch: Ukraine up, Gabon down.
Silicon Valley Bank was the second-largest default of a US bank in modern history. In our view, there is no threat to the overall banking system, but the dynamics will remain negative for smaller US financial institutions...
The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased, entirely led by Emerging Markets (EM) and supported by the reopening of the Chinese economy...
Economic growth and inflation have surprised to the upside so far in 2023, not only thanks to the reopening of the Chinese economy, but also due to the resilience of the labour markets. The combination of a resilient economy and inflation has boosted...
Leading indicators in February suggested global manufacturing slowed but services advanced after inflation was higher than expected in January – a confusing read for global macro dynamics. China called for a ceasefire and peace process in Ukraine but...
Adrian Petreanu, Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets Corporate Debt, and Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Global Head of Research discuss recent developments in the China Real Estate market and the opportunities they believe we will see in the...
Meetings and public statements suggest an attempt to build multilateral support for a ceasefire in Ukraine. China’s Xi Jinping wrote an article in support of boosting income for his country’s low and middle classes as well as supporting its real estate...
The past 5 years in Emerging Markets (EM) have been challenging, impacted by a series of global macroeconomic shocks triggering elevated market volatility and gyrations in market leadership. This was exemplified by the MSCI EM returning close to 0%...
Turkey was hit by a disastrous earthquake a few months before a key presidential election. Brazil debates its inflation target as political pressure on its central bank increased. China’s credit creation was stronger than expected, boosting hopes for...
Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.
This week will set the tone for risk assets for the remainder of Q1. In Emerging Markets (EM), Colombia and South Africa both hiked policy rates by 25 basis points (bps), below consensus...
Chinese stocks’ outperformance extended in 2023, allowing for another relief rally into Developed Markets (DM) stocks. Argentina announced a bond buyback. Political noise remained loud in Brazil...
Softer inflation data and the feel-good factor from China create a positive confidence shock. Emerging Market (EM) debt issuance jumps to USD 34bn in a single week. Central Europe, India and Mexico post better inflation numbers.
An encouraging start to 2023, as the re-opening of China’s economy goes ahead. A new year, a rebirth of EM primary market issuance. The storming of the Federal District by supporters of ex-president Bolsonaro in Brazil echoes the similar event on 6 Jan...
A better year-end for EM manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs), except for China, where the experience of ‘living with Covid’ appears to be creating an incredible amount of pain, and noise. Looking through the near-term confusion, the...
Global equity markets attempt to rise after consumer price index (CPI) inflation was lower than expected across the world, with US equities rallying sharply after its CPI release last Tuesday. However, stocks sold off after the “one-two hawk strike” by...
This week will be key for the performance of risk assets in December. In Peru, Pedro Castillo was ousted from his presidential seat after attempting to unlawfully dissolve parliament. In Argentina, Vice-President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was...