MF entrance with sign of International Monetary Fund, concrete architecture building wall security guard doors.
By Gustavo Medeiros
The Emerging View

IMF WEO meeting highlights

Attending the IMF World Economic Outlook Forum provided reassurance that the global macro environment favours risk assets, especially EM/FM. Debasement fears are overblown. AI capex and Fed support keep spirits high.

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A blue and white argentinian flag with a yellow sun sits on a pole. The sky is clear and blue, with a few clouds scattered throughout. The flag is waving in the breeze, giving the impression of a sunny day.
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Viva la Libertad!

US–China agree trade framework; China prioritises tech and posts 22% y/y profit rebound. US sanctions Russian refineries. BI seen easing to ~3.5%. SK–US talks stall. Argentina’s ruling party wins midterms. Moody’s puts US tariffs on Mexico at 7.5%.
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Oil goes contango

US private-credit failures lift risk; oil flips to contango; Trump reverses Ukraine Tomahawks; Israel-Hamas truce collapses after 2 Israeli soldiers shot; China credit weak; S Korea tightens property; US $40bn for Argentina; Mexico eyes excise hikes.

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EM and the big Biden growth rotation
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EM and the big Biden growth rotation

In addition to bridging deep social divisions in American society, President Joe Biden faces two important policy challenges. One is to eradicate coronavirus. The other is to turn the economy and voter sentiment.
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Vaccine developments, big improvements in economic activity and more benign geopolitics bode very well for returns across EM markets in 2021, notably for EM equities.
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EM IG sovereign bonds (for the risk averse)

The 2020 Triple Shock of coronavirus, crashing commodity prices and spread widening reminded many investors that segments of Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income can be extremely volatile during bouts of risk aversion.