MF entrance with sign of International Monetary Fund, concrete architecture building wall security guard doors.
By Gustavo Medeiros
The Emerging View

IMF WEO meeting highlights

Attending the IMF World Economic Outlook Forum provided reassurance that the global macro environment favours risk assets, especially EM/FM. Debasement fears are overblown. AI capex and Fed support keep spirits high.

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A blue and white argentinian flag with a yellow sun sits on a pole. The sky is clear and blue, with a few clouds scattered throughout. The flag is waving in the breeze, giving the impression of a sunny day.
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Viva la Libertad!

US–China agree trade framework; China prioritises tech and posts 22% y/y profit rebound. US sanctions Russian refineries. BI seen easing to ~3.5%. SK–US talks stall. Argentina’s ruling party wins midterms. Moody’s puts US tariffs on Mexico at 7.5%.
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Oil goes contango

US private-credit failures lift risk; oil flips to contango; Trump reverses Ukraine Tomahawks; Israel-Hamas truce collapses after 2 Israeli soldiers shot; China credit weak; S Korea tightens property; US $40bn for Argentina; Mexico eyes excise hikes.

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Chinese bonds as safe havens

Chinese Fixed Income was one of the few safe haven markets amidst the turbulent interest rate environment in Q1 2021.
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A short note on Peruvian politics

Peru is characterised by a pronounced and somewhat unusual dichotomy between deeply dysfunctional politics and generally strong economic performance.
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Ships blocked, chips scarce

A large containership blocked the Suez Canal last week, disrupting global trade.
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Transitions

Transitions are noisy, but interesting from an investment perspective.
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Missing the big picture on IMF lending

In a recent opinion piece in the Financial Times, Ousmene Mandeng makes the point that the lending programmes of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are defective.
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Another VIX shock suggests opportunities in EM equities

Last week the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX as it is more commonly known, spiked by 59% to 33.1, impacting asset prices which, in our opinion, make EM equities and EM local bonds look attractive.