Blue lake on a snowy mountains background and cloudy sky Torres del paine
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Latin America: Monroe Doctrine 2.0 amid a transition to the right

With politics shifting back towards the market-friendly right, earnings growth improving and the outlook for commodities becoming structurally bullish given the ongoing arms race for AI, defence and energy, Latin America is again back on investors’ radars

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USD weakness, JPY strength and more EM outperformance

Yen surged on US Treasury activity amid benign US inflation. India-EU trade and Colombia/Chile fiscal reforms highlight EM shifts. Global diplomacy saw US-Ukraine-Russia talks, while Fitch boosted Türkiye and Gabon resumed IMF engagement.
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Weekly investor research

Greenland, tariffs, and yet another case for EU capital repatriation

Trump threatens 10% tariffs on goods from 8 European nations from 1 Feb, rising to 25% by 1 Jun unless Greenland sale talks advance. China posts record surplus; FX flows hint USD weakening. US CPI softer; Argentina/Brazil updates; UAE assets up 23%.

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Another BRICs in the Wall

The BRICS group of countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) announced the inclusion of several other countries. China announced further measures to boost growth (and stock prices). Thailand Parliament elected a new government, led by...
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The US and Chinese economic surprise indices push markets into peak US optimism and peak China pessimism. US Treasury yields continue to rise, driven by real rates, under the twin effects of strong data and large Treasury issuance. China’s economic...
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Rethinking TINA: The Emerging Eight

The role of the human psychological cycle in driving stock and bond prices is well understood and pre-dates behavioural economics. There are elements that suggest we may be going through another period of ‘irrational exuberance’ as several long-term...
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How did the Colombian Peso become this year’s darling?

What is the best performing currency in 2023 so far? Against all odds and biases, the Colombian Peso (COP), which is up 16.8% against the USD year-to-date and 22.8% including the ‘carry’, or the interest rate differential earned by carrying long...
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EV buyers may be in DM, but its supply chain assets are in EM

The strong performance of equity markets last week was related to the market interpretation of the main central bank decisions, seeing ‘not hawkish’ as ‘dovish’, and confusion over the actions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Chinese stocks outperformed on...
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The case for local currency bonds “Si, se puede!”

Believe it or not, Emerging Markets (EM) local currency bonds have been outperforming global fixed income asset classes for the past 18-months. Most of the outperformance has been based on an early and more appropriate hiking cycle from EM central...
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'EM in 10' update - July 2023

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions with his views about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.
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India takes centre stage

India has a compelling investment case. Over the last ten years, the MSCI India index has delivered over 135% returns in USD. Over the last three to five years, the same index has delivered 69% and 56% returns respectively, outperforming the MSCI...