Aerial view at night of The Grand Palace, Bangkok, Thailand
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

A multi-year tailwind for EM assets

US exceptionalism, built on unsustainable fiscal policies, is under threat. Tariffs and budget dysfunction in Washington are driving high volatility in US equities, revealing the fragility behind past market strength.

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Beautiful ocean sunset, with golden sky, dark blue sea and silhouette of ship, oil tanker on the horizon.
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Markets remain calm after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

US bombed Iranian nuclear sites; low oil disruption risk priced. US data weakens; Fed sees 2 cuts in 2025. China to scrap most Africa tariffs. Thai coalition splits. Brazil hikes to 15%. Colombia ups 2025 borrowing. Ghana gets Fitch upgrade.
Dascht e Lut, Wüste, IranDasht-e Lut Iran, colored mountains Unesco world heritage site
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Geopolitical risks spike again

Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites, lifting oil prices but not the dollar. US eyes easing China trade curbs for rare earths. EM debt saw $3.8bn inflows. Strong data from China, Korea. Loans for South Africa, Ecuador. Mexico signals 50bps cut.
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EM benefiting as investors vote with their feet

EM assets rose as investors rebalanced away from the US on trade hopes and soft data. Oil climbed on macro optimism. India cut rates 50bps. Vietnam growth seen at 6%. Brazil eyes deficit fixes. Colombia hit by political violence. Poland risk lingers.

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Energy politics: regulating the temperature

Energy politics move again to the fore, while concerns about Ukraine’s nuclear power plant force rare agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Argentina posts good fiscal numbers and looks at its exchange rate. Brazil’s presidential election heats up...
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WEBINAR: Plague, War, Famine and the Fed.

The Four Horsemen of Macro Apocalypse, and Opportunities in Emerging Markets - How the four main headwinds for equities are fading and our view on where to be positioned.
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Busy summer for policy-makers

The momentary easing in financial conditions seen in July is now behind us. Global economic challenges continue to demand a decisive response and policy-makers everywhere must make difficult choices. Europe is under pressure from high gas prices, while...
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'EM in 10' update - August 2022

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.
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The reality of ESG integration in Emerging Markets equity

Successful investing in Emerging Markets is inextricably linked to a deep understanding of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors. Developing countries are likely to face a disproportionate impact from some of the sustainability challenges...
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Mixed news flow across EM as DM PMIs flashed recession

The flash PMIs declined more than expected in Europe and the United States, with most forward-looking indicators below 50.0 levels. Russia agreed a deal to safeguard exports of grain from Ukraine and restarted gas flows from Nord Stream 1 pipeline but...
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The war of attrition grinds on in Ukraine

The war of attrition grinds on in Ukraine as Europe tries to normalise gas flows and open ports for grains. China’s challenges were compounded by boycotts on mortgages for unfinished projects. Argentina’s finance minister announced its new economic plans.
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'EM in 10' update - July 2022

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.
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Emerging Market Debt | Masterclass

It has been a tough start to 2022 for emerging market debt, but what could the future have in store for the months and years ahead? Ashmore’s Head of Research, Gustavo Medeiros, took part in the Asset TV Masterclass.
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Recession signals in DM, whilst EM activity recovers

Manufacturing PMIs improved in Hungary, Colombia, Mexico and China and remained at solid levels across most countries, standing in contrast with the US and Europe where manufacturing PMIs have declined fast. Russia gains further territory in Ukraine.
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Hike while you can: Flash PMIs in Europe and US declined fast

The risk of an energy crisis in Europe increased further as the G7 discussed a price cap on imports of oil from Russia and economic activity surprised to the downside in both Europe and the United States, led by very poor flash PMI surveys. Chinese...
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Sadly, a more hawkish Fed can’t stop the war in Ukraine

The situation on the ground in Ukraine continues to suggest a protracted war of attrition for longer as gas flows to Europe get disrupted. Gustavo Petro won the presidential race in Colombia but will have to govern with a minority in parliament. Covid...
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Higher inflation and rates almost everywhere

Inflation surprised to the upside in the United States (US) and Europe but remains subdued across Asia and seems to have peaked in South America. Central banks will soon realise that the current level of interest rates and tightening of financial...
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'EM in 10' update - June 2022

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.