Strait of Hormuz
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The Strait of Hormuz & the Vix shock

Emerging View examines the Strait of Hormuz tail-risk, rising energy prices and supply strains, comparing today’s backdrop with past oil shocks and assessing what the Iran-US conflict could mean for emerging market assets.

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Weekly investor research

Regime change in Hungary and positive election results in Peru

Markets focused on politics, energy and AI: Hungary and Peru point to more market-friendly outcomes, US pressure on Iranian oil raises risk, AI-led growth remains strong from the US to Korea, while Colombia was downgraded and Turkey’s outlook softened.
Video

WEBINAR: How are EM Frontier debt markets holding up?

Watch the replay of this insightful webinar where Gustavo Medeiros, Global Head of Research, and Alexis de Mones, Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets Debt, discussed their views on the resilience of EM Frontier debt markets in the current environment.
Weekly investor research

Risk asset recovery on thin ice

Risk assets have rebounded since last Tuesday, but risks remain high as Trump’s Iran deadline looms. Strong US payrolls suggest the cyclical upswing remains intact, while several EM policymakers kept a cautious stance on rates, fuel and energy.

Latest Insights

Irish dancing
Weekly investor research

Dancing to the Fed’s rate hike ‘skip’

The benign macroeconomic backdrop and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) inclination to ‘skip’ this month’s rate hike are music to investors’ ears. Flows into credit products and Emerging Markets (EM) bond issuance have benefitted from improved sentiment.
Turkish flag flying in the sky
Weekly investor research

A welcome lull in policy uncertainty

In Türkiye, President Erdogan throws an olive branch to the market by appointing an old friend. OPEC+ oil production cuts cause barely a ripple on Brent crude prices, as global inflationary pressures show signs of abating. In the United States (US)...
Semiconductor manufacturing with 3d rendering robotic arms with silicon wafers
Live at the Sub-ICs

The semiconductor cycle is dead, long live the super cycle!

The health of developed market (DM) economies is in doubt with bank profitability stresses highlighting the impact of tight financial conditions on the real economy. This is prompting some to question whether enough downside risk is priced in DM equity...
Small (EM) is beautiful
Video

Small (EM) is beautiful

Patrick Cadell, Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets Small Cap Equity and Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research discuss the opportunities present in the Emerging Market Small Cap Equity universe and the outlook for the second half of 2023 and...
Election voting card
Weekly investor research

EM elections: good result in Thailand, poor results in Türkiye

It was a good outcome in the Thai presidential elections in terms of fostering liberal economic reforms. In Türkiye, Erdogan won most votes but fell short of the 50% mark, leading to a 28 May run-off. Argentina’s inflation rose further. In Colombia, ...
Bank Negara Malaysia
Weekly investor research

We wish all central banks were steady as Bank Negara Malaysia

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) hiked policy rates by 25 basis points (bps), in line with consensus. Bank Negara Malaysia also hiked by 25bps, but its track record suggests a much better management of macro stability...
Ashmore video
Video

'EM in 10' update - May 2023

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.
Let's talk politics
Weekly investor research

Let’s talk about politics

Weak leading manufacturing indicators globally. Another bank bites the dust in the United States (US), where negotiations over raising the debt ceiling call for political compromise. Good news from Indonesian politics. Gustavo Petro reshuffled his...
US Dollar bundles
Weekly investor research

EM local assets outperform on weak USD

Emerging Market (EM) stocks and local bonds outperformed last week due to a weaker US dollar, better-than-expected economic data from China, and lower inflation in Brazil and India. Argentina’s inflation increased further, partially due to the drought...
Ashmore video
Video

'EM in 10' update - April 2023

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.
Ship in port
Equities

Five reasons to buy Emerging Markets equities

Emerging Markets (EM) have faced a challenging environment over the past five years, due to a series of global shocks that have triggered elevated market volatility and led the MSCI EM equity benchmark to experience its most protracted drawdown in...
Rail tracks running through a tunnel with a light at the end of it.
Weekly investor research

Staying the course

Central banks in the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK) hiked their policy rates, but framed their forward guidance as data-dependent, mostly due to risks of a significant deterioration in credit conditions. The flash Purchasing Manager Indices...