By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The AI Supercycle and Bottlenecks: A Multi-year Tailwind for EM

As AI compute demand scales, the worry has shifted from overbuilding to scarcity. Can energy and chip supply keep pace, or will bottlenecks throttle the capex cycle? We map the constraints and their implications for emerging markets.

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Weekly investor research

Oil down and risk assets up as US/Iran deal approaches

Risk assets rally and oil falls as a US/Iran deal nears. The ECB delivers its first rate hike in three years, US CPI lands in line as jobs surprise higher, Korean exports jump 46% year on year, and S&P upgrades Argentina to 'B-'.
Weekly investor research

US buyback engine sputters: Supply hits an overextended market

Record US tech issuance lands on an over-extended market of stretched valuations and positioning. Markets now price two Fed hikes ahead of Warsh's first meeting on 17 June, as India opens to foreign investors and South Korea moves to support the Won.
Video

WEBINAR: Emerging Markets: beyond the AI trade

Watch the replay: Gustavo Medeiros (Global Head of Research) and Dhiren Shah (Head of Emerging Markets Equity Strategy) discuss their views on EM opportunities, whether the AI trade has room to run and what it could mean for countries, sectors and stocks.

Latest Insights

Oil pump on the background of the flag of Venezuela. Oil pump silhouette.
Weekly investor research

US temporarily removes sanctions on Venezuela

The US suspended for six months the financial sanctions imposed on Venezuelan oil and gas and secondary market trading of Eurobonds. The sanctions release was motivated by the tight supply on oil markets and the large number of Venezuelan immigrants...
Ballot box
Weekly investor research

Elections have consequences

The Israel-Hamas conflict remained the dominant theme in global macro. No major surprises from the IMF meetings in Marrakesh, where countries presented their fiscal and structural reform and several frontier countries worked on debt restructuring...
Multicolored powder dyes
Video

EM Equity - Ingredients for the next EM upcycle

Dhiren Shah (Lead Portfolio Manager of the Ashmore EM Equity Fund), and Gustavo Medeiros (Ashmore’s Global Head of Research). During this live webinar they discussed the opportunities present in Emerging Market Equity.
Map showing Israel
Weekly investor research

Hamas Strikes Israel

Israel declared war on Hamas following an organised attack on the country, 50 years after the Yom Kippur War. A Bank of International Settlements (BIS) paper published last week suggests the global supply chain has lengthened since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Oil drums sitting over a bar graph
Weekly investor research

Slippery slope: Will oil keep driving rates higher?

Global oil markets experienced a bullish run towards the USD 100 per barrel level. High oil prices and increased supply of US Treasury (UST) bonds led to a strong sell-off in rates. Chinese economic data was better than consensus before the...
Picture of the world's continents in the clouds among the greenery
The Emerging View

Solving the Energy Transition paradox in Emerging Markets

The energy transition debate is maturing. The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the increase in the global average temperature to 2.0°C, ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels is imperative to avoid a challenging climate situation.
Indian banknotes
Weekly investor research

Indian Government Bonds: index inclusion matters

A hawkish dot-plot brought US interest rates higher, but risks are increasing. Disputes over Ukrainian grain exports increased tensions in Eastern Europe. JP Morgan announced it will include India in its Emerging Market (EM) Government bond index...
Sunny sky
Video

EM Local Currency Bonds: The dog days are over

Alexis de Mones (Portfolio Manager, Local Currency), and Gustavo Medeiros (Ashmore’s Global Head of Research). During this live webinar they discussed the opportunities present in Local Currency Bonds.
New BRICs countries
Weekly investor research

Another BRICs in the Wall

The BRICS group of countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) announced the inclusion of several other countries. China announced further measures to boost growth (and stock prices). Thailand Parliament elected a new government, led by...
Election voting card
Weekly investor research

Room for fiscal conservatives in October LATAM elections

The US and Chinese economic surprise indices push markets into peak US optimism and peak China pessimism. US Treasury yields continue to rise, driven by real rates, under the twin effects of strong data and large Treasury issuance. China’s economic...
Rethinking TINA: The Emerging Eight
The Emerging View

Rethinking TINA: The Emerging Eight

The role of the human psychological cycle in driving stock and bond prices is well understood and pre-dates behavioural economics. There are elements that suggest we may be going through another period of ‘irrational exuberance’ as several long-term...
Colombian Peso
Market Commentary

How did the Colombian Peso become this year’s darling?

What is the best performing currency in 2023 so far? Against all odds and biases, the Colombian Peso (COP), which is up 16.8% against the USD year-to-date and 22.8% including the ‘carry’, or the interest rate differential earned by carrying long...
Electric car being charged.
Weekly investor research

EV buyers may be in DM, but its supply chain assets are in EM

The strong performance of equity markets last week was related to the market interpretation of the main central bank decisions, seeing ‘not hawkish’ as ‘dovish’, and confusion over the actions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Chinese stocks outperformed on...