Aerial view at night of The Grand Palace, Bangkok, Thailand
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

A multi-year tailwind for EM assets

US exceptionalism, built on unsustainable fiscal policies, is under threat. Tariffs and budget dysfunction in Washington are driving high volatility in US equities, revealing the fragility behind past market strength.

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Markets remain calm after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

US bombed Iranian nuclear sites; low oil disruption risk priced. US data weakens; Fed sees 2 cuts in 2025. China to scrap most Africa tariffs. Thai coalition splits. Brazil hikes to 15%. Colombia ups 2025 borrowing. Ghana gets Fitch upgrade.
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Geopolitical risks spike again

Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites, lifting oil prices but not the dollar. US eyes easing China trade curbs for rare earths. EM debt saw $3.8bn inflows. Strong data from China, Korea. Loans for South Africa, Ecuador. Mexico signals 50bps cut.
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EM benefiting as investors vote with their feet

EM assets rose as investors rebalanced away from the US on trade hopes and soft data. Oil climbed on macro optimism. India cut rates 50bps. Vietnam growth seen at 6%. Brazil eyes deficit fixes. Colombia hit by political violence. Poland risk lingers.

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Better market sentiment after good news from China

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US stocks down, EM stocks up

US stocks and the US dollar underperformed last week as economic activity slows in the US while EM stocks rebounded. China cut lending rates by 20bps. The Ukraine conflict remained at a stalemate as Russia downplayed the importance of Sweden and...
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China’s data weak, but leading indicators more encouraging

Finland and Sweden said they would like to join NATO. China’s economic data was much weaker than expected in April, but higher frequency data improved in May. Brazil’s Petrobras hiked diesel prices despite political pressures. Most Chileans said they...
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No breakthrough on victory day

There was no breakthrough from Russia during victory day and no significant sanctions on Russia following the G7 meeting. Brazil hiked policy rate by 100bps to 12.75%, Czech and Poland hiked 75bps to 5.75% and 5.25% respectively while India hiked 40bps...
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Russia threatens to cut gas supplies to Europe

Russia announced it halted gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria and said it repaid the Eurobonds before the end of the grace period. Brazilian consumer price inflation rose less than expected. The Chinese politburo sent a strong message of support for...
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'EM in 10' update - May 2022

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The USD bull trap and EM USD debt

Emerging market assets underperformed over the first four months of the year as market participants priced in a much more hawkish hiking cycle by the Fed. At the same time, higher interest rates differentials buoyed the greenback lead the US Dollar...
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Better than expected Chinese data, but peace talks stalled in Ukraine

Chinese economic activity was better than expected, but underlying sector data suggests weaker dynamics than meets the eye. Sri Lanka announced the suspension of debt service. Indian inflation surprised to the upside. Indonesian trade surplus rose...
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This piece reviews the background and impact of the exclusion of Russia and Belarus from the main Emerging Markets (EM) indices as well as the current market conditions and outlook for Russian and Ukrainian bonds.
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Global Manufacturing PMIs play into the stagflation narrative

Global Markit Manufacturing PMI indicators softened, as China underperformed due to targeted lockdowns in Shanghai, notably. The increase in ISM prices paid and the depressed level of supplier delivery times in the US Markit PMI provide further...
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The case for EM in a multipolar world

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a shock to the existing world order. From an economic perspective, the initial impact of the war is rising inflation given the importance of Russia and Ukraine in the supply of commodities to the world. The economic...