Aerial view at night of The Grand Palace, Bangkok, Thailand
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

A multi-year tailwind for EM assets

US exceptionalism, built on unsustainable fiscal policies, is under threat. Tariffs and budget dysfunction in Washington are driving high volatility in US equities, revealing the fragility behind past market strength.

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Markets remain calm after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

US bombed Iranian nuclear sites; low oil disruption risk priced. US data weakens; Fed sees 2 cuts in 2025. China to scrap most Africa tariffs. Thai coalition splits. Brazil hikes to 15%. Colombia ups 2025 borrowing. Ghana gets Fitch upgrade.
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Geopolitical risks spike again

Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites, lifting oil prices but not the dollar. US eyes easing China trade curbs for rare earths. EM debt saw $3.8bn inflows. Strong data from China, Korea. Loans for South Africa, Ecuador. Mexico signals 50bps cut.
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EM benefiting as investors vote with their feet

EM assets rose as investors rebalanced away from the US on trade hopes and soft data. Oil climbed on macro optimism. India cut rates 50bps. Vietnam growth seen at 6%. Brazil eyes deficit fixes. Colombia hit by political violence. Poland risk lingers.

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The end of US stock market exceptionalism

Market price action signals the end of United States (US) stock market exceptionalism. Russia held cordial and constructive conversations with the US with the aim to de-escalate tensions on the Ukrainian border.
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EM stocks outperforming global stocks year-to-date

EM stocks outperformed on the back of a weaker US Dollar, reflecting the soft price action in US stocks and in spite of higher US Treasury yields. China’s real GDP growth rose +8.1% in 2021 despite mixed activity in December.
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Equity Outlook 2022: Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets (EM) have demonstrated their resilience during the greatest economic shock since the Global Financial Crisis. This was contrary to market expectations.
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Four mega-trends shaping the 2022 outlook and beyond

The global macro environment is ripe for EM assets outperformance as a combination of stronger growth in China, the end of exceptionalism in the US and less uncertainty on US interest rates, lead to a strong backdrop for EM assets.
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Weekly investor research

Gabriel Boric elected President in Chile

China and Turkey eased policy rates, the first minimally, the latter repeating policy mistakes, while Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Hungary and Pakistan hiked policy rates. The centre-left candidate Gabriel Boric was elected as President in Chile.
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Webinar: EM Equity intro and Update

Head of All Cap Equity, Dhiren Shah, and portfolio manager, Edward Evans describe the All Cap Equity platform at Ashmore and explain the drivers of historical performance along with positioning outlook for the EM Equity Strategy.
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A consolidation path for Chinese property

Chinese property markets are going through a significant slowdown that began in Q2 2021. The average slowdown in the previous episodes over the last 20 years lasted four quarters.
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Weekly investor research

Argentina gets closer to the IMF as China eases monetary policy

Most EM countries remained in a moderate expansion according to the PMI survey by Markit. Argentina and the IMF nodded to each other. The Brazilian Senate approved a constitutional amendment clearing the path for the 2022 budget.
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Differentiation is the name of the game

The results of the leading e-commerce Chinese companies highlight the importance of active management in EM equities. Argentina and the IMF sent positive signals towards a new agreement.