By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The AI Supercycle and Bottlenecks: A Multi-year Tailwind for EM

As AI compute demand scales, the worry has shifted from overbuilding to scarcity. Can energy and chip supply keep pace, or will bottlenecks throttle the capex cycle? We map the constraints and their implications for emerging markets.

Subscribe to our insights

Subscribe and get notified as soon as we publish our content

The latest insights from our categories

Weekly investor research

US buyback engine sputters: Supply hits an overextended market

Record US tech issuance lands on an over-extended market of stretched valuations and positioning. Markets now price two Fed hikes ahead of Warsh's first meeting on 17 June, as India opens to foreign investors and South Korea moves to support the Won.
Video

WEBINAR: Emerging Markets: beyond the AI trade

Watch the replay: Gustavo Medeiros (Global Head of Research) and Dhiren Shah (Head of Emerging Markets Equity Strategy) discuss their views on EM opportunities, whether the AI trade has room to run and what it could mean for countries, sectors and stocks.
Weekly investor research

The right edges ahead in the Colombian presidential race

A rightward tide is reshaping Latin American politics: De La Espriella tops Colombia's first round, Fujimori leads Peru's runoff polls, and Caputo predicts a comfortable Milei re-election in Argentina.

Latest Insights

National flags
Weekly investor research

Encouraging EM stories, turbulent Western politics.

US Treasuries rally despite ‘Trump premium’ post-debate. In the UK, Labour won a ‘loveless’ landslide. Far-right tide stemmed in France as left-wing coalition won most votes. Purchasing Managers Indices softened further in Europe, resilient in EM Asia
Amuse bouche - Food in a spoon. Taste gastronomy finger food.
Weekly investor research

Amuse-bouche

The US Presidential debate and the first round of the French general elections are just starters for the political trends impacting the west. In contrast, the President of South Africa appointed its national unity government, which is likely to lead to...
Old book laying on yellow paper Isolated gold background
The Emerging View

The untold story of improving EM fundamentals

Since the Covid shock, high global inflation, aggressive US fiscal expansion and a strong dollar have created a challenging environment for Emerging Market (EM) countries.
Businessman looking at three interlocking globes.
Weekly investor research

Political uncertainties from DM countries in focus

Geopolitical uncertainties abound after G-10 central banks start a tentative easing cycle. The US and global economies remain very imbalanced. China announced a monetary policy framework overhaul. Argentina delivered on fiscal consolidation and reforms…
Parliament, South Africa
Live at the Sub-ICs

Elections in South Africa: A new GNU

It’s been exactly 30 years since then-President Nelson Mandela enabled South Africa’s transition from an apartheid white-minority government to a democratically-elected government by bringing several political parties together to form a...
AI Generated - An analyst diligently investing based on economic data and ignoring noise from poor forecasts.
Weekly investor research

Lower inflation is the signal, random dots on a chart is noise.

Global stock volatility increased due to the French snap elections, the Fed’s hawkish tone, and deteriorating economic data. EM stocks were supported by Asia. Global bond yields declined after lower US inflation data. The EU announced tariffs on...
A transparent ballot box in front of a illuminated map of the world.
Weekly investor research

Elections still dominate the macro calendar

A landslide victory in Mexico led to higher market volatility as it raised constitutional risks, while coalition governments in South Africa and India led to a more muted market response. The IMF struck deals with Zambia, Ukraine, and Ecuador.
Colourful overlapping silhouettes of people voting.
Weekly investor research

Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico dominate the agenda.

FOMC minutes’ more hawkish tone led to a re-pricing of rate cut odds in September. Flash PMIs showed stronger service sector, booming India. Taiwan geopolitical ‘noise’ increased last week on the new government inauguration. Israel’s offensive in Rafah...
Middle East and Global Geopolitics: When it rains, it pours.
The Emerging View

Middle East and Global Geopolitics: When it rains, it pours.

The heaviest rainfall in 75 years in Dubai is an unlikely analogy to the current state of geopolitical affairs in the Middle East. A few years ago, the prospect of a direct conflict between Iran and Israel would have brought chills to analysts’ spines.
Deer stag sitting at desk
Weekly investor research

Spotting stagflation

US economic growth has surprised to the downside, inflation to the upside. A helicopter crash killed Iranian President Raisi. Israel’s Netanyahu faced more pressure from his cabinet. The US announced 100% tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.
Deforestation - An industry in the middle of the Amazon
Market Commentary

Rooting for change: Investor engagement and EM deforestation risk

The pivotal role of forest preservation in the battle against climate change is well understood. Forests provide a crucial carbon sink, the destruction of which will further accelerate global warming. Indeed, an estimated 15% of global carbon...
AI concept with brain
Live at the Sub-ICs

EM’s role in the AI revolution: disruptor or disrupted?

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) evolves, it has the potential to be transformational for Emerging Markets (EM) through the advancement of economic development, by disrupting industries and, in some EM companies’ cases, by leading the global AI...
China focuses on domestic reforms and overseas cooperation
Weekly investor research

China focuses on domestic reforms and overseas cooperation

Hawkish holds/cuts in EM contrasted with dovish holds/cuts in DM. US economic growth softened in recent weeks, while EM growth remained resilient. The US is considering quadrupling tariffs on Chinese renewable technology imports. China’s Xi visited...