MF entrance with sign of International Monetary Fund, concrete architecture building wall security guard doors.
By Gustavo Medeiros
The Emerging View

IMF WEO meeting highlights

Attending the IMF World Economic Outlook Forum provided reassurance that the global macro environment favours risk assets, especially EM/FM. Debasement fears are overblown. AI capex and Fed support keep spirits high.

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A blue and white argentinian flag with a yellow sun sits on a pole. The sky is clear and blue, with a few clouds scattered throughout. The flag is waving in the breeze, giving the impression of a sunny day.
Weekly investor research

Viva la Libertad!

US–China agree trade framework; China prioritises tech and posts 22% y/y profit rebound. US sanctions Russian refineries. BI seen easing to ~3.5%. SK–US talks stall. Argentina’s ruling party wins midterms. Moody’s puts US tariffs on Mexico at 7.5%.
Oil rig production platforms at sea
Weekly investor research

Oil goes contango

US private-credit failures lift risk; oil flips to contango; Trump reverses Ukraine Tomahawks; Israel-Hamas truce collapses after 2 Israeli soldiers shot; China credit weak; S Korea tightens property; US $40bn for Argentina; Mexico eyes excise hikes.

Latest Insights

Trump flag flying with the sky and clouds in the background.
Market Commentary

Trump 2.0: Implications for Emerging Markets

While Donald Trump’s election victory was far from a surprise, the strength of the mandate he won was impressive. Trump captured all seven of the pivotal swing states needed for Electoral College success, the Republicans flipped the Senate and are...
American flags near the Air & Space Museum in Washington, D.C.
Weekly investor research

EM markets resilient as dust settles on US election

Trump’s big win delivered the expected macro reaction; for one day. Geopolitical discussions begin with Trump and Zelensky, and (probably) Trump and Putin. Qatar request Hamas leaders leave Doha. China deliver RMN10tn in fiscal support for local...
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Weekly investor research

Iowa poll shakes up Trump bets in markets

Softer US labour data contrasted with higher inflation, consumption and wider UK budget deficit, which kept yields under pressure last week. A surprising poll in Iowa showed Harris leading in a perceived ‘red’ state. China expected to unveil large...
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The Emerging View

The impact of oil prices on EM sovereign credit

Today, oil exposure among Emerging Market (EM) nations is very diversified. Of course, there are major EM oil exporters, but most countries are net energy importers. In weighted terms, only 17% of the JP Morgan index of EM sovereign bonds (EMBI GD) are...
Vibrant sunrise over the National Mall in Washington DC.
Market Commentary

Dispatch from DC

The Autumn IMF meetings present an opportunity for investors to engage with IMF authorities, central bankers, finance ministers, technocrats, political consultants, economist and peers. The state of the global economy and the main risks and...
An American flag flying on the Riverwalk late in the day with the Trump Tower in the background.
Weekly investor research

Trump trade shaping markets one week from US election

UST yields continued to climb higher on economic outperformance and ‘Trump trade.’ Key Chinese fiscal legislators announced they will meet between the 4-8th of November. Oil sold off 5% on Sunday evening, after Israel chose not to strike Iranian oil...
Sikkim India Tibet Plateau China
Weekly investor research

China’s policy “u-turn” reaffirmed

Higher US CPI and jobless claims led to a steepening of the yield curve. China shed some more light on stimulus plans, without revealing scope of fiscal expansion, yet. Korean bonds will enter the FTSE WGBI and Indian bonds on the FTSE EM GBI in Q4 2025
Aerial view on country road through the mixed forest in autumn colours.
Equities

Investing in Emerging Markets excluding China

China has the world’s second largest economy, and the country’s rise to prominence has been rapid. This has triggered some investors to consider China and Emerging Markets (EM) ex-China separately, similar to other dominant global powers like the US...
Aerial view Crude oil tanker under cargo operations on typical shore station with clearly visible mechanical loading arms and pipeline infrastructure.
Weekly investor research

EM spreads tighten as yields and oil go higher

Sharp increase in yields post strong labour market report and increase in oil prices. Chinese stocks outperform again ahead of end of Golden Week holiday. Iran missile strikes against Israel targeted civilian areas, further escalating the regional..
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Don’t stand in the way when China goes big

PBoC cut policy rates by 20bps, reserve requirement ratio by 50bps, RMB 700bn allocated for stock buybacks. Politburo pledged to support the housing market and signalled fiscal support. Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah...
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The Emerging View

A new bull market cycle in Emerging Market equities

A decade of tech-driven US stock market outperformance has contrasted with tepid returns for Emerging Market indices. But past returns are not an indicator of future performance, and the drivers of markets over the next decade will be quite different...
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Positive credit rating momentum continues in EM

US Fed’s 50bp cut led to risk rally last week. Major escalation of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Dovish moves from Chinese central bank. Sri Lanka elect left-wing President, sparking concerns over IMF programme. Brazil hike 25bp...
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Brazil set to buck the trend and hike rates

60% probability of FOMC cutting 50bp now priced. More weak demand data from China. Javier Milei exercised veto power of a fiscal expansion policy in Argentina. Sri Lanka election outcome meaningful for IMF programme. IMF set to meet this month...
Sculpture of the Angel of Independence
Weekly investor research

Mexican judiciary reform clears another hurdle, but more remain

Soft US economic data set the tone for asset prices. Oil prices hit yearly lows and kept plunging. Frontier stocks continue to outperform, illustrating their diversification benefits. Chinese monetary intervention supporting yuan. Mexican judiciary...
Fed rate cuts & EM Equities
Video

WEBINAR: Fed rate cuts & EM Equities

Dhiren Shah (Lead Portfolio Manager of the Ashmore EM Equity Fund) and Gustavo Medeiros (Ashmore’s Global Head of Research) discuss Fed rate cuts & EM Equities.