ChatGPT said: Markets navigated rising political and geopolitical noise as Brazilian election tensions grew, the US moved toward a well-telegraphed December rate cut with a data-dependent path in 2026, and commodities threatened to disrupt disinflation.
US bombed Iranian nuclear sites; low oil disruption risk priced. US data weakens; Fed sees 2 cuts in 2025. China to scrap most Africa tariffs. Thai coalition splits. Brazil hikes to 15%. Colombia ups 2025 borrowing. Ghana gets Fitch upgrade.
Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites, lifting oil prices but not the dollar. US eyes easing China trade curbs for rare earths. EM debt saw $3.8bn inflows. Strong data from China, Korea. Loans for South Africa, Ecuador. Mexico signals 50bps cut.
EM assets rose as investors rebalanced away from the US on trade hopes and soft data. Oil climbed on macro optimism. India cut rates 50bps. Vietnam growth seen at 6%. Brazil eyes deficit fixes. Colombia hit by political violence. Poland risk lingers.
US court ruled Trump’s tariffs illegal but they remain pending appeal. Tensions rose as US backed Asian allies. OPEC+ to raise output in July. China’s phone exports fell 21% YoY. Argentina issued 2030 bonds. Mexico’s vote saw 13% turnout.
US exceptionalism, built on unsustainable fiscal policies, is under threat. Tariffs and budget dysfunction in Washington are driving high volatility in US equities, revealing the fragility behind past market strength.
EM assets outperformed YTD across equities, local debt, HY & IG bonds. US equity vols remain low despite rising risks. Indonesia outlined 2026 framework. Argentina eases controls. Brazil scraps tax, saves BRL31bn. Strong tourism in Türkiye.
EM assets regain momentum after US credit downgrade. US budget bill advances. China data soft. India inflation slows. Milei wins Buenos Aires. Political boosts in Ecuador, Romania; challenges in Colombia. Polish election tighter than expected.
After President Milei’s rapid fiscal rebalancing, a fresh USD15bn disbursement from the IMF put Argentina in a position to slash its capital controls. Under the new FX regime, the peso - the world’s best performing currency last year - is holding firm.
US cut China tariffs to 30% for 90 days, sparking risk-on sentiment and Dollar rebound. Fed held rates steady. China eased policy further. India-Pakistan ceasefire. IMF lent $1.4bn to Pakistan. Peru cut rates. Ghana upgraded.
US Q1 earnings strong; Q2 outlook weaker. US stagflation fears persist. Taiwan dollar rallies sharply. Oil falls on Saudi supply hike. Korean leader resigns for election. Colombia cuts rates; Brazil eyes tax reform. Simion leads Romania vote...
Brazil’s vast natural resources have helped build a resilient economy, backed by a sophisticated financial system & a well-educated, hyperconnected population. However, persistent political volatility and inefficient public spending have hindered progress
Trump eased on China tariffs; EM assets rallied. IMF cut 2025 global growth to 2.8%. Kazakhstan defies OPEC+. India may retaliate vs Pakistan. IMF suspended Colombia credit. Hungary faces media probe. SA cancels VAT hike. ECB hints at more cuts.
Trump pressured Powell to cut rates amid firing speculation; USD fell sharply. US budget passed key vote; JD Vance in India; Milei set ARS floor. Egypt-Saudi deals; Ghana reaffirmed IMF terms; ANC polled behind DA first time ever in South Africa.
Trump postponed reciprocal tariffs by 90 days except against China. The US dollar index hit a six-month low as 10-year yields rose 50bps. Oil prices fell sharply to post-COVID lows, shifting the curve into contango. Zelenskyy claimed Chinese soldiers...
This webinar, held the day after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were due to come into effect, provide valuable insights into the goal of tariffs, the market impact and where we expect to be once the dust settles.
As “Liberation Day” shocked global markets, EM assets outperformed. NASDAQ now in technical bear market, down 23% from its February peak. US effective tariff rate now at an estimated 22.5%, the highest since 1909.
US tariff announcement due April 2. Trump frustrated over Ukraine talks. Japan resumes trade talks with S. Korea & China. China’s fertility rate drops. IMF’s $20bn aid for Argentina. Bolsonaro faces trial. Ghana’s debt falls. Le Pen guilty of embezzlement