Aerial drone view of beautiful caribbean tropical island Cayo Levantado beach with palms and boat. Bacardi Island, Dominican Republic.
By Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...

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A blue and white argentinian flag with a yellow sun sits on a pole. The sky is clear and blue, with a few clouds scattered throughout. The flag is waving in the breeze, giving the impression of a sunny day.
Weekly investor research

Viva la Libertad!

US–China agree trade framework; China prioritises tech and posts 22% y/y profit rebound. US sanctions Russian refineries. BI seen easing to ~3.5%. SK–US talks stall. Argentina’s ruling party wins midterms. Moody’s puts US tariffs on Mexico at 7.5%.
Oil rig production platforms at sea
Weekly investor research

Oil goes contango

US private-credit failures lift risk; oil flips to contango; Trump reverses Ukraine Tomahawks; Israel-Hamas truce collapses after 2 Israeli soldiers shot; China credit weak; S Korea tightens property; US $40bn for Argentina; Mexico eyes excise hikes.

Latest Insights

Aerial view of the Christ, The Redeemer Monument and the Corcovado Mountain in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
The Emerging View

The ‘land of the future’ can’t wait much longer

Brazil’s vast natural resources have helped build a resilient economy, backed by a sophisticated financial system & a well-educated, hyperconnected population. However, persistent political volatility and inefficient public spending have hindered progress
The United States Capitol in Washington
Weekly investor research

Erratic US policy stance still driving asset prices

Trump eased on China tariffs; EM assets rallied. IMF cut 2025 global growth to 2.8%. Kazakhstan defies OPEC+. India may retaliate vs Pakistan. IMF suspended Colombia credit. Hungary faces media probe. SA cancels VAT hike. ECB hints at more cuts.
US bank note concept with a frowning Benjamin Franklin
Weekly investor research

The dollar keeps frowning

Trump postponed reciprocal tariffs by 90 days except against China. The US dollar index hit a six-month low as 10-year yields rose 50bps. Oil prices fell sharply to post-COVID lows, shifting the curve into contango. Zelenskyy claimed Chinese soldiers...
Outdoor diving board tower.
Weekly investor research

Trump says “tariff”. How high? Read on…

US tariff announcement due April 2. Trump frustrated over Ukraine talks. Japan resumes trade talks with S. Korea & China. China’s fertility rate drops. IMF’s $20bn aid for Argentina. Bolsonaro faces trial. Ghana’s debt falls. Le Pen guilty of embezzlement
Istanbul, the capital of Türkiye.
Weekly investor research

Türkiye’s political shenanigans are back

US tariff uncertainty persists but recent news was calmer. Early investor rotation from US after Germany’s policy shift. Türkiye intervened in TRY post-political shock. Argentina posts surplus, Brazil hikes 100bps. Colombia swaps finance minister.
City of Hamburg with river Elbe and Harbour, Germany
The Emerging View

Germany’s historic fiscal shift: The impact on emerging markets

Seismic US policy shifts have been advancing political and policy changes across the world in response. We offer an overview of the global macro context behind Germany’s historic fiscal reform, and the impact it can have on emerging markets (EM).
China restaurants and night markets illuminated in crowded Beijing streets
Weekly investor research

EM assets resilient as US stocks enter technical correction

US stocks in correction; Bessent unfazed. ECB: Uncertainty higher than Covid. US, Ukraine propose 30-day ceasefire; Russia talks soon. Anti-authoritarian protests in E. Europe. China plans stimulus. Mexico delays tariff retaliation to Apr 2.
AI concept - Tariff and geopolitics driving global macro
Weekly investor research

Tariff and geopolitics driving global macro

EM assets held up in February despite tariffs and geopolitics. Ukraine ceasefire odds rose as US-EU tensions drove change. India posted strong fiscal data; Malaysia advanced reforms, Indonesia faced doubts. Argentina tightened policy, Mexico reformed...
The Great Wall of China.
Weekly investor research

EM equity outperformance accelerates

EM stocks outperformed, led by China. Germany's coalition lacks a 2/3 majority. Qatar & Kuwait exit EMBI GD; LATAM gains. Zelenskyy open to stepping down. Korea & Taiwan exports signal downturn. Bolsonaro accused of coup. SA delays budget announcement.
Chinese stock market
Weekly investor research

Chinese tech extends post DeepSeek rally

Chinese tech stocks surge as Xi meets CEOs. Trump plans reciprocal tariffs. Russian oil exports plunge under sanctions. US-Russia talks on Ukraine imminent. Indonesia cuts spending. Brazil’s Lula faces rising disapproval. Romania’s Iohannis resigns.
Colourful spices
Market Commentary

Unlocking the potential of frontier market debt

Traditional EM indices, such as the JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified (EMBI GD), provide great yield enhancement for global fixed income portfolios. However, the high average duration of this index exposes it to volatility from global risk factors.