By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill, Simon Cooke
The Emerging View

Generating impact and returns through EM public debt markets

Global sustainability funding needs are overwhelmingly concentrated in emerging markets, yet impact capital still skews to developed markets. The September Emerging View sets out why EM public debt is the most scalable way to close the gap.

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Weekly investor research

AI safety and surging energy prices trigger risk-off mood

Markets price a 90% chance of a Fed hike this week even as CPI details stay benign, while Saudi Arabia shuts its East-West pipeline. Plus: Korea weighs a Hormuz deployment, Brazil’s biggest inflation drop since 2022 and Dangote’s Kenyan refinery.
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Watch the replay of this insightful webinar where Rashi Talwar, in conversation with Ben Underhill (Research Associate), discuss their views of the key themes in the Indian equity market and how Ashmore is positioning.

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Weekly investor research

A new easing cycle bodes well for EM assets

Fed cut rates 25bps, more easing likely; Trump and Xi may meet in Oct; UK, Canada & Australia recognised Palestine; Sri Lanka credit upgraded; Argentina intervened to support peso; Brazil held Selic; Nigeria inflation fell to 20.1%.
Weekly investor research

Trade of 2025? EM > AI

EM stocks +4% (Asia-led); EM returns nearly double the S&P YTD. US data backs EM outperformance & weaker USD. US to urge G7 100% tariffs on China/India over Russian oil. Korea KRW 284tn relief; Mexico adds China tariffs; Moody’s affirms Romania Baa3, neg.
Weekly investor research

Weak US payrolls all but assure a September rate cut

Weak US payrolls point to a Sept Fed cut; US10Y ~4%. Senate set to confirm Stephen Miran as temporary Fed chair. French PM Bayrou likely ousted; Japan’s Ishiba resigns. OPEC+ to add 137k b/d in Oct. Poland cuts 25bp. Argentina midterms setback for Milei.
The Emerging View

The case for frontier debt

It’s a catchy axiom that “frontier markets are what emerging markets used to be,” and there’s some truth to it. As emerging markets (EMs) grow and become more interconnected with the global economy, they are increasingly more efficient and correlated...
Weekly investor research

Brazil’s inflation in decline

US data steady; focus shifts to jobs. Appeals court nixes “reciprocal tariffs” (SCOTUS pending). Ukraine ramps refinery strikes. Indonesia protests. Thailand PM dismissed. Brazil Aug deflation; Türkiye Q2 +4.8% growth; Egypt cuts rates 200bps.
Weekly investor research

More US policy drama, more EM outperformance

EM outperformance in Aug; US reflation vs EU deflation. Trump to fire Fed Gov Lisa Cook. FR PM Bayrou faces 8 Sep no-confidence. G7 little result. Bond funds +$97bn/4w. Argentina assets fall on scandal. Moody’s reviews PEMEX for upgrade after $12bn plan.
Weekly investor research

Chinese economic data weakens, but stocks rally

US CPI shows muted tariff pass-through; goods inflation up to 1.3% YoY. China data missed but stocks rallied. Trump met Putin. IEA sees 2026 oil glut. S&P lifts India to BBB; Moody’s upgrades Pakistan. Brazil CPI 5.2% YoY; easing in sight.
The Emerging View

Diversified asset allocation and US fiscal dominance

Volatile post-pandemic macro and US fiscal dominance risks, amid a historic H1-2025 Dollar selloff, are exposing the limits of passive, US-heavy indices. Investors should diversify toward markets less constrained by debt-shadowed central banks.
Weekly investor research

China holds the cards in Stockholm

Europe & Japan face 15% US tariffs despite 'deals'. China may delay 12 Aug deadline by 90 days. India, S. Korea, Thailand talks ongoing. IMF backs Argentina. Brazil FDI weak. Mexico aids Pemex. Poland reshuffles. Türkiye upgraded. Nigeria, Zambia progress
Weekly investor research

Chinese policymakers focusing on industrial overcapacity

CN supply boost stocks; Trump-Powell rumor fades. Strong US EPS. ID 19 % US tariff; TH zero tariff 90 % US goods; Moodys upgrades AR to Caa1; CO holds, peso top LatAm; UA confirms Svyrydenko PM; EG expands VAT; Fitch eyes ZM upgrade if 90% creditors agree
Weekly investor research

Azerbaijan and Oman upgraded to investment grade

Yields rise on inflation and fiscal concerns, while US equities shrug off tariff risks. China tackles excess capacity. Malaysia cuts rates; Vietnam beats Q2 growth forecasts. US hits Brazil with tariffs. Romania tightens fiscally. AZ & Oman upgraded.
Weekly investor research

Noise vs. numbers: OBBBA + tariffs can deliver fiscal consolidation

US passes ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’. Israel-Hamas talks begin Doha. AI chip curbs eyed for Thailand/Malaysia. India data strong. Trump touts Vietnam deal. Argentina downplays peso. Chile left gains. IMF merges Egypt reviews Sept. Dubai unveils home scheme.
Weekly investor research

EM leads the H1 2025 race as equities climb another ‘wall of worry’

EM assets outperformed on weaker USD. Equities shrugged off global risks. China data mixed; Malaysia CPI soft. Colombia downgraded; Mexico revised GDP up. Brazil fiscal woes linger. Chile polarised. E. Europe defence spend challenge. MENA mostly positive.
The Emerging View

Latin American Equities

LatAm was EM's worst performer in 2024, but is rebounding sharply in 2025. Colombia leads YTD gains at 49%, followed by Mexico, Chile, Brazil, and Peru. With elections ahead and market-friendly shifts likely, investors see a cyclical opportunity.