By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

EM Sovereign Debt: The ultra-marathon runner goes on

Inflation has peaked, the capex supercycle rolls on, and EM fundamentals keep improving. We explain why EM sovereign debt, yielding close to 7%, remains one of the most attractively valued asset classes today.

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Falling oil prices bring nominal rates lower and real rates higher

Falling oil prices are pulling inflation expectations and nominal rates lower, while resilient US growth lifts real rates higher. We also cover dramatic semiconductor volatility, record Korean chipmaker capex and Vietnam's expansionary fiscal plans.
Weekly investor research

Oil down and risk assets up as US/Iran deal approaches

Risk assets rally and oil falls as a US/Iran deal nears. The ECB delivers its first rate hike in three years, US CPI lands in line as jobs surprise higher, Korean exports jump 46% year on year, and S&P upgrades Argentina to 'B-'.

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Market commentary
Market Commentary

The merits of Ecuador’s approach

Ecuador has put forward a plan for dealing with an unprecedented triple shock of lower oil prices, coronavirus and loss of access to financial markets.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

The final shock

Lebanon announced a moratorium on its sovereign debt.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Volatility and opportunity

Ecuadorian bonds experienced considerable price volatility due to inaccurate journalism.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Chinese bonds deliver in bear markets

Chinese local currency government bonds are entering JP Morgan’s EM local bond index, the GBI-EM GD, at the end of this month.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

The option value of waiting

High levels of uncertainty are not only associated with a scarcity of facts, but also with high trading costs.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

The power of carry

Quantitative Easing (QE) policies in developed countries triggered a flight from yield in Emerging Markets (EM) as investors pursued capital gains in developed markets instead.