Aerial view at night of The Grand Palace, Bangkok, Thailand
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

A multi-year tailwind for EM assets

US exceptionalism, built on unsustainable fiscal policies, is under threat. Tariffs and budget dysfunction in Washington are driving high volatility in US equities, revealing the fragility behind past market strength.

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Beautiful ocean sunset, with golden sky, dark blue sea and silhouette of ship, oil tanker on the horizon.
Weekly investor research

Markets remain calm after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

US bombed Iranian nuclear sites; low oil disruption risk priced. US data weakens; Fed sees 2 cuts in 2025. China to scrap most Africa tariffs. Thai coalition splits. Brazil hikes to 15%. Colombia ups 2025 borrowing. Ghana gets Fitch upgrade.
Dascht e Lut, Wüste, IranDasht-e Lut Iran, colored mountains Unesco world heritage site
Weekly investor research

Geopolitical risks spike again

Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites, lifting oil prices but not the dollar. US eyes easing China trade curbs for rare earths. EM debt saw $3.8bn inflows. Strong data from China, Korea. Loans for South Africa, Ecuador. Mexico signals 50bps cut.
Legs and shoes on asphalt with the word "vote"
Weekly investor research

EM benefiting as investors vote with their feet

EM assets rose as investors rebalanced away from the US on trade hopes and soft data. Oil climbed on macro optimism. India cut rates 50bps. Vietnam growth seen at 6%. Brazil eyes deficit fixes. Colombia hit by political violence. Poland risk lingers.

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'EM in 10' update

Gustavo Medeiros, Deputy Head of Research, discusses various Emerging Markets themes. This week, we will go through the performance of EM asset prices year-to-date, discuss the latest manufacturing PMI surveys and finally discuss recent events in China.
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Seven policy proposals to meet the Paris Agreement objectives

The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced the legally binding goal of maintaining the average global temperature below the pre-industrial revolution average plus 2⁰ Celsius in order to avoid severe stress on natural and socioeconomic systems.
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Chinese bonds as safe havens

Chinese Fixed Income was one of the few safe haven markets amidst the turbulent interest rate environment in Q1 2021.
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A short note on Peruvian politics

Peru is characterised by a pronounced and somewhat unusual dichotomy between deeply dysfunctional politics and generally strong economic performance.
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Ships blocked, chips scarce

A large containership blocked the Suez Canal last week, disrupting global trade.
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Transitions

Transitions are noisy, but interesting from an investment perspective.
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Missing the big picture on IMF lending

In a recent opinion piece in the Financial Times, Ousmene Mandeng makes the point that the lending programmes of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are defective.