By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The AI Supercycle and Bottlenecks: A Multi-year Tailwind for EM

As AI compute demand scales, the worry has shifted from overbuilding to scarcity. Can energy and chip supply keep pace, or will bottlenecks throttle the capex cycle? We map the constraints and their implications for emerging markets.

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Oil down and risk assets up as US/Iran deal approaches

Risk assets rally and oil falls as a US/Iran deal nears. The ECB delivers its first rate hike in three years, US CPI lands in line as jobs surprise higher, Korean exports jump 46% year on year, and S&P upgrades Argentina to 'B-'.
Weekly investor research

US buyback engine sputters: Supply hits an overextended market

Record US tech issuance lands on an over-extended market of stretched valuations and positioning. Markets now price two Fed hikes ahead of Warsh's first meeting on 17 June, as India opens to foreign investors and South Korea moves to support the Won.
Video

WEBINAR: Emerging Markets: beyond the AI trade

Watch the replay: Gustavo Medeiros (Global Head of Research) and Dhiren Shah (Head of Emerging Markets Equity Strategy) discuss their views on EM opportunities, whether the AI trade has room to run and what it could mean for countries, sectors and stocks.

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Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Inflation peaking in EM

Inflation surprised to the downside across most large EM economies in June.
Automobile production line
Weekly investor research

Temporary dip in EM PMIs amid rapid vaccine rollout

Emerging Market (EM) manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined 0.7 to 51.3 in June. The Chinese monetary policy committee signalled monetary policy should remain accommodative.
Ashmore video
Video

Ashmore EM Review and Outlook - June 2021

Gustavo Medeiros (Deputy Head of Research), Alexis De Mones (Portfolio Manager) and Adrian Petreanu (Portfolio Manager) review the markets and discuss the outlook for EM.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

The OECD revises EM GDP growth forecasts higher

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) revised its estimate of global gross domestic product (GDP) growth higher following recent stronger than expected economic data.
Ashmore video
Video

'EM in 10' update

We discuss the outperformance of EM assets in May, driven by a faster vaccination pace across EM countries. We discuss inflation & explain why it is likely to remain elevated in the US throughout the rest of the year, & why it won't be a big deal for EM.