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By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

South Korea in focus

Korea runs a current account surplus yet the won sits at a 13-year low. We unpack the engineered offshoring behind it, why the policy is now reversing, and why we think the setup for Korean equities looks the strongest since 2007.

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Weekly investor research

The semiconductor super cycle roars on

Iran-US backchannels continue as Tehran submits a new proposal, while semiconductor stocks extend a stretched rally. EM signals were mixed, with contained US inflation expectations, Hungary improving and Philippines downgraded.
Weekly investor research

Schrödinger’s Strait

Hormuz tensions drag on as Iran-US talks may resume. IMF meetings were broadly EM-positive on a weaker USD and firmer commodities, but Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Türkiye all saw fresh policy or credibility strains.
Weekly investor research

Regime change in Hungary and positive election results in Peru

Markets focused on politics, energy and AI: Hungary and Peru point to more market-friendly outcomes, US pressure on Iranian oil raises risk, AI-led growth remains strong from the US to Korea, while Colombia was downgraded and Turkey’s outlook softened.

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Market Commentary

A consolidation path for Chinese property

Chinese property markets are going through a significant slowdown that began in Q2 2021. The average slowdown in the previous episodes over the last 20 years lasted four quarters.
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Weekly investor research

Argentina gets closer to the IMF as China eases monetary policy

Most EM countries remained in a moderate expansion according to the PMI survey by Markit. Argentina and the IMF nodded to each other. The Brazilian Senate approved a constitutional amendment clearing the path for the 2022 budget.
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Weekly investor research

Differentiation is the name of the game

The results of the leading e-commerce Chinese companies highlight the importance of active management in EM equities. Argentina and the IMF sent positive signals towards a new agreement.
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'EM in 10' update - October 2021

Today we will be talking about the post-pandemic macro-economic environment. In particular, the outlook for global inflation and how Central banks should react to it.
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Weekly investor research

Rising policy uncertainty. Georgieva should stay, Powell may go

A number of senior politicians had their financial affairs exposed by the release of the Pandora Papers, while the managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, is under pressure after a report unveiled minor irregularities.
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Weekly investor research

EM manufacturing PMI increased, DM declined

Emerging Markets (EM) Manufacturing PMI converged towards Developed Markets (DM). Brazilian exporters are hoarding US Dollars abroad due to political uncertainty. Chile’s Lower House approved another redemption from the pension system.