Seoul City skyline
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

South Korea in focus

Korea runs a current account surplus yet the won sits at a 13-year low. We unpack the engineered offshoring behind it, why the policy is now reversing, and why we think the setup for Korean equities looks the strongest since 2007.

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The semiconductor super cycle roars on

Iran-US backchannels continue as Tehran submits a new proposal, while semiconductor stocks extend a stretched rally. EM signals were mixed, with contained US inflation expectations, Hungary improving and Philippines downgraded.
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Schrödinger’s Strait

Hormuz tensions drag on as Iran-US talks may resume. IMF meetings were broadly EM-positive on a weaker USD and firmer commodities, but Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Türkiye all saw fresh policy or credibility strains.
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Regime change in Hungary and positive election results in Peru

Markets focused on politics, energy and AI: Hungary and Peru point to more market-friendly outcomes, US pressure on Iranian oil raises risk, AI-led growth remains strong from the US to Korea, while Colombia was downgraded and Turkey’s outlook softened.

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Hawks deliver a one-two strike

Global equity markets attempt to rise after consumer price index (CPI) inflation was lower than expected across the world, with US equities rallying sharply after its CPI release last Tuesday. However, stocks sold off after the “one-two hawk strike” by...
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EM in 10 - 2023 Outlook summary

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, summarises the recently published 2023 Outlooks for Emerging Markets.
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2023 Outlook for Emerging Markets - A year of two halves

Emerging Market (EM) assets were subject to three strong headwinds in 2022, namely, China’s zero Covid-19 and real estate crisis, aggressive interest rate tightening from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Two out of...
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EM PMIs still outperforming as China eases mobility further

Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for Emerging Markets (EM) declined very slightly, contrasting with the deterioration on developed world PMIs. Europe agreed on capping the price of Russian oil. Large Chinese cities eased mobility restrictions.
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Flashing red PMIs already signalling a US recession in early 2023

Flashing red Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) are signalling a US recession in early 2023. China protesters took to the streets as local government restrictions conflicted with 20 new guidelines issued early in the month. The Peruvian president...
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Tokayev elected president of Kazakhstan for another 7 years

A clear result in the Kazakh election contrasts with the hung parliament in Malaysia. The Indonesian Central Bank hiked its policy rate by 50bps to 5.25% - another move fostering macroeconomic stability. China economic data was soft and zero-covid took...
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EM stocks and PMIs outperformed

EM Purchasing Managers’ Index outperformed DM’s as China’s economic activity remained lukewarm due to the zero covid-19 policy. EM stocks outperformed led by China as hopes of a Chinese reopening increased. Brazilian assets outperformed the most as...
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'EM in 10' update - November 2022

Gustavo Medeiros, Ashmore’s Head of Research, answers some timely questions about recent events and performance in Emerging Markets for our 'EM in 10' monthly video review.
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Threats, or tricks!

Former President Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva pulled a trick, winning the presidential election for third time with 50.9% of valid votes, despite losing the elections in four out of five regions. Developed world central banks are handling threats in the...
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Xi Jinping consolidates power

The Chinese politburo is now tightly controlled by Xi Jinping. Argentina fiscal and external numbers were better than expected. Incumbent Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is rising in polls for the runoff next Sunday 30 October. Colombian Finance...
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IMF sees better GDP growth in EM

The IMF has kept its global economic growth forecast for 2022 unchanged at 3.2% but highlighted better EM growth. Russia aims at Ukraine infrastructure. Brazil had the third consecutive month of deflation. China’s 20th Party Congress started Sunday as...