MF entrance with sign of International Monetary Fund, concrete architecture building wall security guard doors.
By Gustavo Medeiros
The Emerging View

IMF WEO meeting highlights

Attending the IMF World Economic Outlook Forum provided reassurance that the global macro environment favours risk assets, especially EM/FM. Debasement fears are overblown. AI capex and Fed support keep spirits high.

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A blue and white argentinian flag with a yellow sun sits on a pole. The sky is clear and blue, with a few clouds scattered throughout. The flag is waving in the breeze, giving the impression of a sunny day.
Weekly investor research

Viva la Libertad!

US–China agree trade framework; China prioritises tech and posts 22% y/y profit rebound. US sanctions Russian refineries. BI seen easing to ~3.5%. SK–US talks stall. Argentina’s ruling party wins midterms. Moody’s puts US tariffs on Mexico at 7.5%.
Oil rig production platforms at sea
Weekly investor research

Oil goes contango

US private-credit failures lift risk; oil flips to contango; Trump reverses Ukraine Tomahawks; Israel-Hamas truce collapses after 2 Israeli soldiers shot; China credit weak; S Korea tightens property; US $40bn for Argentina; Mexico eyes excise hikes.

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Market commentary
Market Commentary

The well-meaning misguided G20 proposal

The recently launched G20 initiative to provide debt relief for poorer Emerging Markets (EM) countries may be well-meaning, but it is also seriously misguided. In particular, the proposal fails on two counts.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

The case for a global macro-prudential policy

The tendency for global capital to flee ‘risky’ EM countries indiscriminately in favour of ‘risk free’ developed markets during outbreaks of global risk aversion is one of the great international market failures of  our time.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

The merits of Ecuador’s approach

Ecuador has put forward a plan for dealing with an unprecedented triple shock of lower oil prices, coronavirus and loss of access to financial markets.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

The final shock

Lebanon announced a moratorium on its sovereign debt.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Volatility and opportunity

Ecuadorian bonds experienced considerable price volatility due to inaccurate journalism.