Blue lake on a snowy mountains background and cloudy sky Torres del paine
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Latin America: Monroe Doctrine 2.0 amid a transition to the right

With politics shifting back towards the market-friendly right, earnings growth improving and the outlook for commodities becoming structurally bullish given the ongoing arms race for AI, defence and energy, Latin America is again back on investors’ radars

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USD weakness, JPY strength and more EM outperformance

Yen surged on US Treasury activity amid benign US inflation. India-EU trade and Colombia/Chile fiscal reforms highlight EM shifts. Global diplomacy saw US-Ukraine-Russia talks, while Fitch boosted Türkiye and Gabon resumed IMF engagement.
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Greenland, tariffs, and yet another case for EU capital repatriation

Trump threatens 10% tariffs on goods from 8 European nations from 1 Feb, rising to 25% by 1 Jun unless Greenland sale talks advance. China posts record surplus; FX flows hint USD weakening. US CPI softer; Argentina/Brazil updates; UAE assets up 23%.

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The Classic EM risk roll-down

The classic EM risk roll-down is now on full display with Chinese stocks outperforming on the back of stronger than expected economic data.
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The China Witch Hunt

The common characterisation of US-China relations as a new Cold War is wrong.
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Stress testing EM sovereign external debt

The coronavirus outbreak was an unprecedented shock to the global economy, which experienced the fastest and deepest recession outside times of war.
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US-China tensions increase

China’s National People’s Congress approved new security legislation for Hong Kong.
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Macroeconomic control regimes

Everyone knows why the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc countries lost the Cold War: economics.
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The well-meaning misguided G20 proposal

The recently launched G20 initiative to provide debt relief for poorer Emerging Markets (EM) countries may be well-meaning, but it is also seriously misguided. In particular, the proposal fails on two counts.