- Markets in panic mode this morning after position unwinding…
 - …coincided with economic data softening at a faster pace….
 - … leading to the first meaningful VIX spike since March 2022.
 - US interest rates pricing very large short-term cuts. Historically coincided with a recession when the yield curve normalised from inverted levels (dis-inverted).
 - US economy is indeed slowing, corroborated by manufacturing PMIs last week, but the sell-off may have moved ahead of itself, in our view.
 - US political risks and geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain elevated.
 - Tensions remain elevated in Venezuela.
 - China’s activity still sluggish.
 - Korean exports softened but expected to remain elevated.
 - Panama announced expenditure cuts to consolidate its large deficit.
 - Pakistan upgraded last week, Bangladesh and Kenya downgraded.
 - Ethiopia floated its currency. Protesters took to the streets in Nigeria.