Close-up river stream in forest.
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Flows to EM: The end of the beginning

As emerging market (EM) outperformance extends, investors are now frequently asking us about flows to EM assets. In this month’s Emerging View, we review data from Morningstar which confirms our answer: that net inflows have become a reality only since H2

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View across the Strait of Hormuz toward rugged mountains of the Musandam Peninsula in Oman. Small boats rest on the calm water beneath the arid landscape of the northern Arabian Peninsula.
Weekly investor research

Strait of Hormuz disruption enters third week

Oil shock eased as Brent fell back below USD 100, but Hormuz disruption still hit supply and reserves. Brazil retail surprised positively, while Egypt saw record outflows and political strains deepened in Mexico and Brazil.
Oil refinery plant.
Weekly investor research

USD100 oil puts EM outperformance on hold

Oil rose above $100 as Middle East tensions escalated. US payrolls missed badly, China stayed productivity-focused, Indonesia’s outlook was cut, Argentina passed labour reforms, and Poland trimmed rates despite inflation risks.

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Emerging view
The Emerging View

Beware of Big Fiscal

Picture yourself in charge of the government of a rich country.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The 2019-2023 EM fixed income outlook The Emerging View

Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income should deliver compounded returns ranging from 30% to 60% in Dollar terms over the 2019-2023 investment horizon as markets revert to unwinding the so-called QE trades
Emerging view
The Emerging View

US late cycle dynamics and EM bonds

The recent volatility in US stocks may be a warning that the US business cycle expansion is moving into its late stages.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Convergence, Big Time

A new study shows strong empirical evidence in favour of Emerging Markets (EM) economic convergence, which is arguably the single most important fundamental rationale for allocating to the EM asset class.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

Déjà vu 2002

The 2018 sell-off in EM local markets is more than a mere conventional ‘buy the dip’ opportunity.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

The EM equity universe: 7 implications of evolution

The size of the Emerging Markets (EM) equity universe is significant. It is evolving quickly and becoming more sophisticated as EM broaden, deepen and liberalise, better reflecting their underlying economic growth drivers.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

Saudi Arabia’s Big Year

It was announced on 28 March that Saudi Arabia will be a constituent of the FTSE Emerging Markets index.
Market commentary
Market Commentary

The limits of protectionism

Last night the US government announced details of a USD 50bn package of tariffs on Chinese imports.