MF entrance with sign of International Monetary Fund, concrete architecture building wall security guard doors.
By Gustavo Medeiros
The Emerging View

IMF WEO meeting highlights

Attending the IMF World Economic Outlook Forum provided reassurance that the global macro environment favours risk assets, especially EM/FM. Debasement fears are overblown. AI capex and Fed support keep spirits high.

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A blue and white argentinian flag with a yellow sun sits on a pole. The sky is clear and blue, with a few clouds scattered throughout. The flag is waving in the breeze, giving the impression of a sunny day.
Weekly investor research

Viva la Libertad!

US–China agree trade framework; China prioritises tech and posts 22% y/y profit rebound. US sanctions Russian refineries. BI seen easing to ~3.5%. SK–US talks stall. Argentina’s ruling party wins midterms. Moody’s puts US tariffs on Mexico at 7.5%.
Oil rig production platforms at sea
Weekly investor research

Oil goes contango

US private-credit failures lift risk; oil flips to contango; Trump reverses Ukraine Tomahawks; Israel-Hamas truce collapses after 2 Israeli soldiers shot; China credit weak; S Korea tightens property; US $40bn for Argentina; Mexico eyes excise hikes.

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Chinese bonds deliver in bear markets

Chinese local currency government bonds are entering JP Morgan’s EM local bond index, the GBI-EM GD, at the end of this month.
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The option value of waiting

High levels of uncertainty are not only associated with a scarcity of facts, but also with high trading costs.
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The power of carry

Quantitative Easing (QE) policies in developed countries triggered a flight from yield in Emerging Markets (EM) as investors pursued capital gains in developed markets instead.
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Habemus trade deals

The signing of the phase one trade deal between the United States (US) and China and the ratification of USMCA by the US Senate reduced tail risks and boosted short term market sentiment.
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Delightful diversification

Often underappreciated, the benefits of diversification in external debt were richly on display in 2019, when the asset class returned 15% despite significant volatility in a number of EM countries, including Argentina.
Emerging view
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The 2020-2024 EM fixed income outlook

Following another year of strong returns, EM fixed income has outperformed developed bond markets by a significant margin over the past four years.
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The opportunity of EM real estate

Lower interest rates in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis are increasing the affordability of real estate while rendering conventional liquid fixed income in developed economies (DM) less attractive.