Situation on the ground

• Civilians near Kyiv are managing to escape Russian shelling as humanitarian corridors were set up, while Mariupol remains under siege as several cease fire attempts for the evacuation of civilians failed.
• Negotiations between Foreign Affairs Ministers Dmytro Kuleba of Ukraine and Sergei Lavrov from Russia will take place tomorrow.
• Russia stated their key conditions for a cease fire: demilitarisation, no NATO membership. Ukraine should also recognise Crimea as Russian territory and Luhansk and Donetsk as independent sovereign republics. Encouragingly, the Russian Foreign Ministry said the military operation does not aim to overthrow Ukraine’s government.
• The Kremlin also said that sending Polish fighter jets to Ukraine is a “potentially dangerous and undesirable scenario.”
• Russia also accused Ukraine to develop biological weapons.
• President Zelensky had already said Ukraine would not seek NATO membership. A foreign policy aide to President Zelensky added Ukraine would be willing to demilitarise, provided it has security guarantees, but also said Ukraine will not surrender a single inch of its territory.

Market update

• More than 200 western companies pledged to leave Russia. The ruling United Russia Party said government had approved the first step towards nationalising property of foreign companies leaving the country.
• The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) limited cash withdrawals in foreign currency to USD 10k. Any amount exceeding USD 10k in cash withdrawals are allowed in RUB, converted based on the market exchange rate. The CRB said 90% of all deposits are smaller than USD 10k.
• Bloomberg reported the Russian bank VTB is offering an 8% rate on RMB deposits.
• Ukrainian refugees approach 2m people, more than 50% crossing the border to Poland.
• Moody’s estimates Europe may have to spend c. EUR 50bn to support Ukrainian refugees.