Situation on the ground

• A fourth cease-fire attempt to evacuate civilians from Mariupol was frustrated, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the city. The Russian military now controls most of the south of the country, except for the area south of Moldova, including Odesa.
• A ceasefire was agreed to allow civilians to leave the cities of Sumy (to Poltava) and Irpin (to Kyiv).
• There was severe shelling around Kyiv as Russian troops are bringing reinforcements and supplies for an assault on the capital.
• More than two million people have fled Ukraine.
• Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed the situation in Ukraine with French President Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz. Xi said China was willing to coordinate with Europe a solution to the Ukraine crisis.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he “lost interest in NATO” as NATO is not ready to accept Ukraine.

Market update

• JP Morgan will exclude Russia from all its fixed income benchmarks on 31 March.
• The inclusion of Ukrainian UAH bonds in the local government bond index, originally scheduled for 31 March is now on hold.
• The US banned imports of oil from Russia. The country imported 500k barrels of oil per day before the war, but is self-sufficient in energy.
• The UK set a target to phase out imports of Russian oil by the end of 2022, but kept imports of gas.
• Several European oil companies, including Shell and BP said they would stop purchasing oil and gas from Russia as US President Joe Biden announced a ban on imports of Russian oil.
• The shocks on commodity prices were exacerbated by a 2-fold increase in nickel prices in one day at the London Stock Exchange (LSE). The exchange cancelled all trades Tuesday – a rare and hard to justify action.
• Copper prices softened from the highs of yesterday. The red metal is one of the best leading indicators for global economic activity.   
• The Ukrainian Central Bank reported it held USD 27.5bn in foreign exchange reserves at the end of February.
• The RUB hit 175 Monday night before gapping to 110 this morning and trades at 130 at 5pm GMT. Trading in RUB is set to restart tomorrow (9 March) following a local holiday.