Situation on the ground

• The Russian Parliament passed a law for up to 15-years in prison for anyone spreading ‘fake news’ about the Russian military
• Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in eastern Ukraine (Zaporizhzhia) caught fire after shelling, but emergency services said they extinguished the blaze and there were no injuries. Nuclear reactors are protected by robust containment structures that should be able to withstand the impact of missiles.
• A poll in Sweden and Finland showed approximately 50% of their population now back joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) after the war in Ukraine
• Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) said it was suspending lending to Russia and Belarus. AIIB made the move on the basis of the ''best interests of the bank'' after Russia’s credit rating was downgraded. China holds 27% of the voting power in the AIIB, which was founded at President Xi Jinping behest as an answer to the IMF and World Bank.
• Ukraine plan to hold a third round of talks with Russian officials in order to agree a cease-fire.
• NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance will not impose a no-fly zone in order to avoid the risk of a “fully-fledged war in Europe involving much more countries and much more suffering”.

Market update

• Russia recommended fertiliser producers to halt exports. Russia is responsible for two thirds of the world’s ammonium nitrate production, mostly used in fertilisers to improve crop yields.
• Wheat, corn and other agricultural products also rose sharply. Wheat is up 56% year-to-date, threating global food security.
• Oil prices rose to USD 115 per barrel, up 48% year-to-date. Natural gas prices are up 180%
• S&P downgraded Russia’s sovereign rating on foreign and local currency debt by 6 notches to CCC- from BB+. The ratings remain on Watch Negative. This follows the agency’s previous downgrade from investment-grade to BB+ on February 26.
• The International Monetary Fund is looking to suspend Russia’s voting rights and access to SDR. Microsoft suspended new sales of products and services in Russia.
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a detailed plan on the path for the EU to reduce its dependence on Russian gas imports. The IEA said the EU can cut imports by more than one-third this year and fully stop imports of gas by 2030.¹

^{1. See https://www.iea.org/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-reduce-the-european-unions-reliance-on-russian-natural-gas}