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Market Commentary

An update on Russia/Ukraine

By Gustavo Medeiros

Read our latest daily commentary on Russia / Ukraine.

Situation on the ground

  • The meeting between Foreign Affairs Ministers Sergey Lavrov and Dmytro Kuleba in Turkey did not yield any concrete results.
  • Ukraine said it was willing to accept neutrality, but not ceding territory.
  • The main humanitarian sticking point was in regards to the situation in Mariupol where tens of thousands of civilians remain under siege.
  • Russia said it would attack until its demands were met.
  • The Mayor of Kyiv Vitaly Klitschko said around half of the population fled the city. Klitschko described Kyiv as a “fortress” that won’t fall despite the Russian’s encirclement of the city in an attempt to topple the government.
  • US Vice President Kamala Harris flew to Poland amid tense negotiations between Warsaw and Washington. A few days ago US Secretary of State Antony Blinken pledged to replace any fighter jets sent from Poland to Ukraine with US ones. But yesterday Blinken acknowledged “complexities” in providing security assistance, as the Biden administration realises that this would put the US in a dangerous path of confrontation with a major nuclear powerhouse.

Market update

  • The US Senate approved a fiscal package including c. USD 15bn for Ukraine. The IMF and World Bank had already committed USD 1.4bn and USD 0.7bn in loans to the country.
  • Russian president Vladimir Putin said Russia kept exporting oil and gas, including through Ukraine, despite the wave of sanctions imposed by the West.
  • Finance Minister Siluanov re-stated that Russian debt would be paid in RUB and foreign currency debt would be available for repayment if the foreign exchange reserves in the Central Bank of Russia would be unfrozen.
  • At the same time, former President Dmitry Medvedev said the government is working on measures including the bankruptcy and nationalisation of property from foreign companies exiting Russia.

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