Strait of Hormuz
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The Strait of Hormuz & the Vix shock

Emerging View examines the Strait of Hormuz tail-risk, rising energy prices and supply strains, comparing today’s backdrop with past oil shocks and assessing what the Iran-US conflict could mean for emerging market assets.

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Satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz with white graphic lines representing global shipping lanes and maritime traffic between the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
Weekly investor research

Market relief as Trump signals progress in Iran negotiations

Trump gave Iran a short Hormuz ultimatum before a brief extension, as Iran hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan. Major central banks held rates with hawkish bias on energy risks, while EM policy diverged amid fuel, trade and election strains.
View across the Strait of Hormuz toward rugged mountains of the Musandam Peninsula in Oman. Small boats rest on the calm water beneath the arid landscape of the northern Arabian Peninsula.
Weekly investor research

Strait of Hormuz disruption enters third week

Oil shock eased as Brent fell back below USD 100, but Hormuz disruption still hit supply and reserves. Brazil retail surprised positively, while Egypt saw record outflows and political strains deepened in Mexico and Brazil.

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Outdoor diving board tower.
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Trump says “tariff”. How high? Read on…

US tariff announcement due April 2. Trump frustrated over Ukraine talks. Japan resumes trade talks with S. Korea & China. China’s fertility rate drops. IMF’s $20bn aid for Argentina. Bolsonaro faces trial. Ghana’s debt falls. Le Pen guilty of embezzlement
Istanbul, the capital of Türkiye.
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Türkiye’s political shenanigans are back

US tariff uncertainty persists but recent news was calmer. Early investor rotation from US after Germany’s policy shift. Türkiye intervened in TRY post-political shock. Argentina posts surplus, Brazil hikes 100bps. Colombia swaps finance minister.
City of Hamburg with river Elbe and Harbour, Germany
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Germany’s historic fiscal shift: The impact on emerging markets

Seismic US policy shifts have been advancing political and policy changes across the world in response. We offer an overview of the global macro context behind Germany’s historic fiscal reform, and the impact it can have on emerging markets (EM).
China restaurants and night markets illuminated in crowded Beijing streets
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EM assets resilient as US stocks enter technical correction

US stocks in correction; Bessent unfazed. ECB: Uncertainty higher than Covid. US, Ukraine propose 30-day ceasefire; Russia talks soon. Anti-authoritarian protests in E. Europe. China plans stimulus. Mexico delays tariff retaliation to Apr 2.
AI concept - Tariff and geopolitics driving global macro
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Tariff and geopolitics driving global macro

EM assets held up in February despite tariffs and geopolitics. Ukraine ceasefire odds rose as US-EU tensions drove change. India posted strong fiscal data; Malaysia advanced reforms, Indonesia faced doubts. Argentina tightened policy, Mexico reformed...
The Great Wall of China.
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EM equity outperformance accelerates

EM stocks outperformed, led by China. Germany's coalition lacks a 2/3 majority. Qatar & Kuwait exit EMBI GD; LATAM gains. Zelenskyy open to stepping down. Korea & Taiwan exports signal downturn. Bolsonaro accused of coup. SA delays budget announcement.
Chinese stock market
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Chinese tech extends post DeepSeek rally

Chinese tech stocks surge as Xi meets CEOs. Trump plans reciprocal tariffs. Russian oil exports plunge under sanctions. US-Russia talks on Ukraine imminent. Indonesia cuts spending. Brazil’s Lula faces rising disapproval. Romania’s Iohannis resigns.
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Unlocking the potential of frontier market debt

Traditional EM indices, such as the JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified (EMBI GD), provide great yield enhancement for global fixed income portfolios. However, the high average duration of this index exposes it to volatility from global risk factors.
Indian Rupee paper currency on virtual interface of stock market data.
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India cautiously cut rates for first time in five years

Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum apply globally. US eyes cost cuts; MAG 7 dips. Russia-Ukraine peace plan at Munich. RBI cuts rates. Philippine VP impeached. Fitch affirms Korea’s AA-. Argentina to end FX controls by 2026. Japan wages surge.
A security fence built around a 3d map of the USA with signs "Tariffs" and 10%, 30%, 80%, 100%.
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Trump pulls the tariff trigger

Trump imposes new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Investors assess DeepSeek’s AI impact. India unveils 2025 budget. Political shifts in Argentina. Brazil commits to deficit cuts. Colombia plans tax reform. Panama affirms canal control.
Data center server racks.
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The inconvenient truth behind US exceptionalism

This month’s EV quantifies the magnitude of fiscal stimulus which turns out to be surprisingly close to the market capitalisation surge over the past eight years. US exceptionalism now has a disruption narrative with DeepSeek...
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DeepSeek impacts AI industry and EM

EM gains as tariffs ease (except Colombia). DeepSeek impacts AI supply chains. Trump-Putin talk Ukraine. Strong Asian exports; Indonesia reforms. Argentina pushes markets. LATAM leftists under pressure. Türkiye cuts rates; Egypt plans Eurobonds...