ECB held; BoE cut 25bp; BoJ hiked 25bp; Thailand/Chile/Mexico eased. US announced $11bn Taiwan arms & blocked Venezuelan oil; EU okayed €90bn Ukraine loan. Fitch/S&P upgrades; Colombia downgraded; Argentina unveiled new FX plan.
Fed cut 25bp plus $40bn/month T-bill buys. BOE set to cut, BOJ to hike; EM MPCs in focus. $52bn tech investment in India; IMF okays $1.2bn for Pakistan. Chile elects Kast; Vietnam FDI 5y high; ratings mixed (Oman up, Hungary down).
Last night’s S&P downgrade of El Salvador’s credit rating to Selective Default makes this report on Emerging Markets (EM) external debt extremely timely.
In a recent article about China’s inclusion in the MSCI benchmark index the Financial Times columnist John Authers made the following astute observation: “There is something ungainly in the way [China’s index inclusion] has been outsourced to MSCI..."
Global bond funds have seen a dramatic rise in assets over the past 10 years, reflecting the desire of investors to be exposed to a broader, more diverse set of assets away from their home markets.
MSCI’s inclusion of Chinese stocks into its index is another inexorable step towards China’s entry into and eventual dominance of the global financial system.
As investors return to EM local markets on the back of strong performance and a solid outlook they will be forced to inject capital directly into EM economies.
Emerging Markets (EM) asset prices over-reacted to the downside in recent years, especially given that EM fundamentals held up far better than expected in the face of serious headwinds.