ECB held; BoE cut 25bp; BoJ hiked 25bp; Thailand/Chile/Mexico eased. US announced $11bn Taiwan arms & blocked Venezuelan oil; EU okayed €90bn Ukraine loan. Fitch/S&P upgrades; Colombia downgraded; Argentina unveiled new FX plan.
Fed cut 25bp plus $40bn/month T-bill buys. BOE set to cut, BOJ to hike; EM MPCs in focus. $52bn tech investment in India; IMF okays $1.2bn for Pakistan. Chile elects Kast; Vietnam FDI 5y high; ratings mixed (Oman up, Hungary down).
Vaccine developments, big improvements in economic activity and more benign geopolitics bode very well for returns across EM markets in 2021, notably for EM equities.
The 2020 Triple Shock of coronavirus, crashing commodity prices and spread widening reminded many investors that segments of Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income can be extremely volatile during bouts of risk aversion.
The IMF reported that the largest share of global GDP growth over the next five years is expected to come from EM. Argentina marginally increased interest rates in a vague attempt to control USD purchases.
As the twin burdens of coronavirus and late business cycle dynamics increasingly weigh on growth prospects in developed markets (DMs), governments have been quick to spend more.
China said it will share a China-made coronavirus vaccine with other EM countries, such as Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey as soon the vaccine is fully developed.
In the latest in US-China tensions, a US court blocked the proposed closure of WeChat, while Bytedance kept a majority shareholding position and control over its algorithm in TikTok.