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By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

2026 Emerging Markets Outlook

Disinflation, not debasement points to 'goldilocks' in 2026

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Weekly investor research

Brazilian political volatility against a solid real economy

ChatGPT said: Markets navigated rising political and geopolitical noise as Brazilian election tensions grew, the US moved toward a well-telegraphed December rate cut with a data-dependent path in 2026, and commodities threatened to disrupt disinflation.

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Money Pile $100 US dollar bills
Weekly investor research

Softening US data weighs on Dollar, buoying EM assets.

Trump shooting changes the dynamics, but not the trends, of the US presidential race. EM assets outperformed last week, buoyed by a weaker Dollar. China further restricted short selling as data weakened ahead of the Third Plenum. South Korea discussed...
National flags
Weekly investor research

Encouraging EM stories, turbulent Western politics.

US Treasuries rally despite ‘Trump premium’ post-debate. In the UK, Labour won a ‘loveless’ landslide. Far-right tide stemmed in France as left-wing coalition won most votes. Purchasing Managers Indices softened further in Europe, resilient in EM Asia
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Weekly investor research

Amuse-bouche

The US Presidential debate and the first round of the French general elections are just starters for the political trends impacting the west. In contrast, the President of South Africa appointed its national unity government, which is likely to lead to...
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The Emerging View

The untold story of improving EM fundamentals

Since the Covid shock, high global inflation, aggressive US fiscal expansion and a strong dollar have created a challenging environment for Emerging Market (EM) countries.
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Weekly investor research

Political uncertainties from DM countries in focus

Geopolitical uncertainties abound after G-10 central banks start a tentative easing cycle. The US and global economies remain very imbalanced. China announced a monetary policy framework overhaul. Argentina delivered on fiscal consolidation and reforms…
Parliament, South Africa
Live at the Sub-ICs

Elections in South Africa: A new GNU

It’s been exactly 30 years since then-President Nelson Mandela enabled South Africa’s transition from an apartheid white-minority government to a democratically-elected government by bringing several political parties together to form a...
AI Generated - An analyst diligently investing based on economic data and ignoring noise from poor forecasts.
Weekly investor research

Lower inflation is the signal, random dots on a chart is noise.

Global stock volatility increased due to the French snap elections, the Fed’s hawkish tone, and deteriorating economic data. EM stocks were supported by Asia. Global bond yields declined after lower US inflation data. The EU announced tariffs on...
A transparent ballot box in front of a illuminated map of the world.
Weekly investor research

Elections still dominate the macro calendar

A landslide victory in Mexico led to higher market volatility as it raised constitutional risks, while coalition governments in South Africa and India led to a more muted market response. The IMF struck deals with Zambia, Ukraine, and Ecuador.
Colourful overlapping silhouettes of people voting.
Weekly investor research

Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico dominate the agenda.

FOMC minutes’ more hawkish tone led to a re-pricing of rate cut odds in September. Flash PMIs showed stronger service sector, booming India. Taiwan geopolitical ‘noise’ increased last week on the new government inauguration. Israel’s offensive in Rafah...
Middle East and Global Geopolitics: When it rains, it pours.
The Emerging View

Middle East and Global Geopolitics: When it rains, it pours.

The heaviest rainfall in 75 years in Dubai is an unlikely analogy to the current state of geopolitical affairs in the Middle East. A few years ago, the prospect of a direct conflict between Iran and Israel would have brought chills to analysts’ spines.
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Weekly investor research

Spotting stagflation

US economic growth has surprised to the downside, inflation to the upside. A helicopter crash killed Iranian President Raisi. Israel’s Netanyahu faced more pressure from his cabinet. The US announced 100% tariffs on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.
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Market Commentary

Rooting for change: Investor engagement and EM deforestation risk

The pivotal role of forest preservation in the battle against climate change is well understood. Forests provide a crucial carbon sink, the destruction of which will further accelerate global warming. Indeed, an estimated 15% of global carbon...
AI concept with brain
Live at the Sub-ICs

EM’s role in the AI revolution: disruptor or disrupted?

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) evolves, it has the potential to be transformational for Emerging Markets (EM) through the advancement of economic development, by disrupting industries and, in some EM companies’ cases, by leading the global AI...