Dark stylish compass with needle pointing to the year number 2026
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

2026 Emerging Markets Outlook

Disinflation, not debasement points to 'goldilocks' in 2026

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Weekly investor research

Brazilian political volatility against a solid real economy

ChatGPT said: Markets navigated rising political and geopolitical noise as Brazilian election tensions grew, the US moved toward a well-telegraphed December rate cut with a data-dependent path in 2026, and commodities threatened to disrupt disinflation.

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Video

'EM in 10' update

Gustavo Medeiros, Deputy Head of Research, discusses various Emerging Markets themes. This week, we will go through the performance of EM asset prices year-to-date, discuss the latest manufacturing PMI surveys and finally discuss recent events in China.
Polar bear on ice
The Emerging View

Seven policy proposals to meet the Paris Agreement objectives

The 2015 Paris Agreement introduced the legally binding goal of maintaining the average global temperature below the pre-industrial revolution average plus 2⁰ Celsius in order to avoid severe stress on natural and socioeconomic systems.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Chinese bonds as safe havens

Chinese Fixed Income was one of the few safe haven markets amidst the turbulent interest rate environment in Q1 2021.
Emerging view
The Emerging View

A short note on Peruvian politics

Peru is characterised by a pronounced and somewhat unusual dichotomy between deeply dysfunctional politics and generally strong economic performance.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Ships blocked, chips scarce

A large containership blocked the Suez Canal last week, disrupting global trade.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Transitions

Transitions are noisy, but interesting from an investment perspective.
IMF building
Market Commentary

Missing the big picture on IMF lending

In a recent opinion piece in the Financial Times, Ousmene Mandeng makes the point that the lending programmes of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are defective.