Balanced scales: Left scale - Oversized USD/US equities. Right scale - Basket with gold bar, commodity, world currencies, EM skyline, bond coupon.
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

Diversified asset allocation and US fiscal dominance

Volatile post-pandemic macro and US fiscal dominance risks, amid a historic H1-2025 Dollar selloff, are exposing the limits of passive, US-heavy indices. Investors should diversify toward markets less constrained by debt-shadowed central banks.

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More US policy drama, more EM outperformance

EM outperformance in Aug; US reflation vs EU deflation. Trump to fire Fed Gov Lisa Cook. FR PM Bayrou faces 8 Sep no-confidence. G7 little result. Bond funds +$97bn/4w. Argentina assets fall on scandal. Moody’s reviews PEMEX for upgrade after $12bn plan.
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Chinese economic data weakens, but stocks rally

US CPI shows muted tariff pass-through; goods inflation up to 1.3% YoY. China data missed but stocks rallied. Trump met Putin. IEA sees 2026 oil glut. S&P lifts India to BBB; Moody’s upgrades Pakistan. Brazil CPI 5.2% YoY; easing in sight.

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Convergence, Big Time

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Emerging view
The Emerging View

Déjà vu 2002

The 2018 sell-off in EM local markets is more than a mere conventional ‘buy the dip’ opportunity.
Emerging view
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The EM equity universe: 7 implications of evolution

The size of the Emerging Markets (EM) equity universe is significant. It is evolving quickly and becoming more sophisticated as EM broaden, deepen and liberalise, better reflecting their underlying economic growth drivers.
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Saudi Arabia’s Big Year

It was announced on 28 March that Saudi Arabia will be a constituent of the FTSE Emerging Markets index.
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The limits of protectionism

Last night the US government announced details of a USD 50bn package of tariffs on Chinese imports.
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Second Chance Saloon

Emerging Markets equity investors have once again over reacted to Developed Market events.
Emerging view
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2018 EM fixed income outlook

2018 is likely to see strong inflows to EM local markets on the back of strong performance, good value and improving fundamentals.
Emerging view
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The DM savings glut

In 2005 Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke argued that a savings glut in EM explained the US current account deficit.