- The AI-hardware sell-off continued, with ‘risk-off’ dynamics driving bond yields lower.
- US hyperscaler earnings showed strong AI-revenue growth and higher expected 2027 capex.
- US midterms and potential escalation in the Middle East bring a high-risk week for markets.
- SK Hynix reported record Q3 operating profit of KRW 83.3trn, up 557% yoy.
- Argentina’s government and IMF staff reached agreement on the third EFF review.
- Brazilian assets slumped after President Lula’s surprise re-election.
- President Zelenskyy said Ukraine is ready to discuss territorial issues with Russia at leaders’ level.
- Egypt raised its key rates by 100bps in a surprise move, citing inflation and market volatility.
- Saudi Aramco has taken Red Sea export capacity to about 8.2m bpd, from 5m pre-war.
Last Week Performance and Comments
| EM Debt | Yield | Change (bp) | Spread | 5 day Change | EM Equity* | PE 1yr BF | 5 day Change | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBI-EM GD | 6.56% | 9 | – | -1.1% | MSCI EM | 8.4 | -0.7% | • EM local currency bonds fell 1.1% driven by FX. • EM USD sovereign bonds rose 0.4%, with rates moving lower again. • EM equities dropped 0.7% led by Latin America. |
| GBI-EM FX Spot | – | – | – | -0.8% | MSCI EM ex-China | 8.2 | -0.8% | |
| ELMI+ | 6.06% | -3 | – | -0.5% | MSCI EMEA | 9.7 | 0.6% | |
| EMBI GD | 7.09% | -4 | 253 bps | 0.4% | MSCI Latam | 9.0 | -15.3% | |
| EMBI GD IG | 6.20% | -5 | 162 bps | 0.5% | MSCI EM Asia | 8.5 | 0.5% | |
| EMBI GD HY | 8.14% | -4 | 359 bps | 0.3% | MSCI China | 9.3 | -0.4% | |
| CEMBI BD | 6.91% | -4 | 240 bps | 0.1% | MSCI India | 18.6 | 2.2% | |
| CEMBI BD IG | 6.16% | -5 | 163 bps | 0.3% | MSCI EM Small Cap | 12.4 | -3.1% | |
| CEMBI BD HY | 8.38% | -1 | 391 bps | -0.1% | MSCI Frontier | 10.4 | -0.5% |
| Global Debt | Yield | Change (bp) | Spread | 5 day Change | Global Backdrop* | PE 1yr BF | 5 day Change | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2yr UST | 4.59% | -13 | – | 0.3% | MSCI ACWI | 15.5 | -0.3% | • The UST curve bull steepened, with a 13bps move lower in two-year yields led by risk-off. • US stocks fell 0.6%, led by semiconductors. • Brent prices fell 6.3%, on evidence of progress in negotiations. |
| 5yr UST | 4.71% | -12 | – | 0.5% | MSCI World (DM) | 17.4 | -0.2% | |
| 10yr UST | 4.91% | -8 | – | 0.8% | S&P 500 | 18.4 | -0.6% | |
| 30yr UST | 5.28% | -2 | – | 0.8% | VIX Fut.** | 19.8% | 0.6% | |
| 10yr Germany | 3.30% | -6 | – | 0.3% | DXY Index** | 101.6 | -0.3% | |
| 10yr Japan | 2.77% | -3 | – | 0.2% | EUR* | 1.121 | 0.3% | |
| Global Agg.*** | 4.25% | -5 | 36 bps | 0.3% | JPY* | 157.9 | -0.3% | |
| US Agg. IG*** | 5.79% | -8 | 84 bps | 0.6% | CRY Index** | 411.1 | -0.9% | |
| EU Agg. IG*** | 4.22% | -6 | 79 bps | 0.4% | Brent** | 108.5 | -6.3% | |
| US Corp HY*** | 8.31% | -8 | 340 bps | 0.5% | Gold** | 3,905 | -2.8% | |
| EU Corp HY*** | 7.60% | -15 | 385 bps | 0.7% | Bitcoin** | 77,693 | -4.4% |
Source & Notations: See end of document.
Global Macro
The main story in macro markets last week continued to be the rotation away from AI-related tech hardware stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index (SOX) dropped 8.2% on Friday alone and is now 27% lower than its June highs (-15% in October). It has closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since April 2025. The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Information Technology (IT) index is also now on its 200-day moving average for the first time since April 2025 but is yet to drop below it, with some support to the Korean memory sector emerging in recent trading sessions.
Because broad market sentiment has been so driven by AI and tech this year, a shift in mood has had a very marked impact on bond yields, with the 10-year UST yield now back at 4.9% for the first time since September, having round-tripped to over 5.3% in early October. This likely reflects de-leveraging and positioning dynamics as well as some markdown in bond investors’ expectations of overheating AI capex driving nominal growth higher.
There has been little fundamental reason behind the sell-off so far, in our view. The tech sector has derated along with rising interest rates since June, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike in September set the tone for another leg of the sell-off, with tightening financing conditions first affecting the weak links such as the neoclouds and more leveraged AI names. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates last week in a 10-2 vote, but commentary remains tilted hawkish as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated commitment to bringing inflation back to target. Markets are pricing a 75% probability of another hike in December.
Pain in leveraged AI names, however, has now broadened. Equity markets have derated companies associated with large AI capex, even those with large net cash positions. Yet there has been no major across-the-board sell-off, with sectors such as healthcare and consumer staples – classic risk-off rotation plays – catching a bid: both S&P 500 sectors rose over 11% in October.
It is notable that while valuation declines have accelerated in recent months, the broad IT derating really began in July 2024 (peaking at slightly lower levels again in October 2025). Since then, relative to the S&P 500, US IT has fallen from around 1.5x the valuation of the broad index (in 12-month forward P/E terms) to 1.0x today (from 32x to 18x earnings). Earnings have, therefore, driven well over 100% of the rally, with the index up 50% since July 2024’s valuation peak. A 33% derating relative to the index over around 26 months is comparable with the dotcom bust, where S&P IT fell from 2.3x the index valuation to about 1.4x over the same period, around a 40% decline. At 18x forward earnings, S&P IT today is also cheaper than it ever was in the dotcom bust, where the index bottomed – in valuation terms – at 19x in 2002 before a period of recovery. EM IT stocks at 8.5x earnings are also close to the cheapest levels of the 2000s so far.
Despite being very solid on paper, US hyperscaler earnings have not alleviated concerns, probably due to very elevated expectations for both earnings themselves and for capex forecasts. On average, hyperscaler capex came in slightly softer than expected for Q3 2026. However, the only reason for this was supply issues, which is the ‘bottleneck’ trade playing out in real time – the opposite of an indication of oversupply. If one were to make an argument for the recent tech sell-off being efficient ‘pricing’, it would be pricing the risk of capex massively undershooting expectations in 2027. However, there is little evidence that this will be the case. All indications from hyperscaler outlooks are for capex to rise ‘significantly’ in USD terms in 2027, especially as profitability of AI investments remains, so far, very attractive. Cloud revenue is surging across the board, with yoy revenue growth also continuing to rise each quarter, at 103% at Google, 48% at Microsoft and 39% at Amazon.
Taking a step back, it is easy to forget that 2026 was really the first year of mass corporate AI adoption. Given we are still so early in the enterprise adoption curve, and supply around compute and AI data centre components remains highly constrained across the board, it is hard for us to believe we are anywhere near ‘the end’ of this investment cycle. However, even moving to a stage of lower growth in spending may take some time for investors to digest. Risk-off sentiment has set in and financing concerns remain an issue, even as rates have come down meaningfully in the past few weeks. Hedge fund de-leveraging has likely contributed to the magnitude of moves in high-beta tech in the last few weeks.
The US midterms coming up this week are another risk event bringing further uncertainty to the sector. Prediction markets are currently pricing the probability the Democrats take the Senate at 73%. This playing out, assuming the Democrats also take the House (95% priced), may well lead to some further negative AI sentiment, given the Democrats’ anti-data-centre rhetoric. Other models that incorporate the past results and poll biases suggest a good chance that the Republicans keep control of the Senate.
Caution is therefore advisable in the short term, with volatility likely to remain elevated, particularly as the market’s perception is that escalation risk rises in the Middle East upon the conclusion of the US midterms. The main catalyst for a switch back to risk-on remains a deal in Iran, in our view. Axios reported that, on a Saturday call, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed US President Donald Trump to strike Iran immediately after Tuesday’s midterms. Trump prefers to let negotiations run and leave the possibility of a ‘deal’ on the table while preparing for a return to major combat. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is said to be urging more time for the economic pressure campaign to work. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly ordered an immediate response “without geographical limitations” to any attack, even as Qatari mediators spent over 12 hours in talks in Tehran; Iran has threatened oil and gas facilities in five Gulf states if struck.
EM Asia
Chip exports behind 1.0% South Korean quarterly GDP growth
| Country | Event | Period | Actual | Survey | Prior/Revised | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | Industrial Production (YoY) | Sep | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | |
| South Korea | Consumer Confidence | Oct | 105.4 | – | 106.6 | |
| GDP SA (QoQ) | 3Q A | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | Chip exports and equipment investment drove it, triple the BOK's forecast of 0.3%. | |
| GDP (YoY) | 3Q A | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | ||
| Department Store Sales (YoY) | Sep | 8.4% | – | 11.9% | ||
| Industrial Production (YoY) | Sep | 1.2% | 0.6% | -1.7% | ||
| Industrial Production SA (MoM) | Sep | 9.0% | 3.1% | -4.6% | ||
| Taiwan | GDP (YoY) | 3Q A | 14.4% | 12.0% | 12.9% | AI exports and capex, chip tool imports up 36%. |
| Thailand | Customs Exports (YoY) | Sep | 24.0% | 17.4% | 24.3% | |
| Customs Trade Balance (USD) | Sep | -5,856m | -1,950m | -2,483m | Imports hit a record, exports up for 27th month. | |
| BoT Benchmark Interest Rate | 28-Oct | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | ||
| BoP Current Account Balance (USD) | Sep | -1,626m | 1,674m | 2,352m | ||
| Exports (YoY) | Sep | 23.5% | – | 25.3% | ||
| Trade Balance (USD) | Sep | 545m | – | 1,825m | ||
| Gross International Reserves (USD) | 23-Oct | 274.4bn | – | 277.1bn |
Source information is at the end of the document.
India: The Finance Ministry said price stability will be a key priority in H2 FY27, as elevated crude prices and food inflation persist, and estimated Q2 FY27 growth at 7.35% after 7.8% in Q1. It noted that the effectiveness of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) October hike will depend on liquidity management and on limiting second-round effects. A Reuters poll sees growth slowing to 7.1% in FY27 from 7.7% in FY26, inflation averaging 6.1% this quarter and two further RBI hikes taking the repo rate to 6.0% by end-March.
Malaysia: Second Finance Minister Amir Hamzah Azizan said the BUDI95 targeted fuel subsidy programme is still expected to save MYR 2.5-4bn a year by closing loopholes for non-citizens and ineligible recipients. Fuel subsidy spending has stabilised at around MYR 4bn a month, allowing the government to restore the monthly subsidised quota to 300 litres from 200 litres.
South Korea: SK Hynix reported record Q3 operating profit of KRW 83.3trn, up 557% yoy, with an operating margin above 80%, and said virtually all its DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) capacity through 2029 is covered by long-term agreements. Its shares rebounded more than 10%. Samsung Electronics’ final Q3 results confirmed operating profit of KRW 107.4trn, with chips accounting for 99% of the total and 2027 HBM capacity sold out, but net profit of KRW 75.1trn missed consensus and its shares fell.
Latin America
Chile held rates, retail sales stronger
| Country | Event | Period | Actual | Survey | Prior/Revised | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | Foreign Direct Investment | Sep | 11,294m | 6,427m | 7,396m | Only USD 4.3bn new equity, rest reinvested and loans. |
| FGV Inflation IGPM (MoM) | Oct | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | ||
| FGV Inflation IGPM (YoY) | Oct | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.3% | ||
| Total Outstanding Loans (BRL) | Sep | 7,444bn | – | 7,412bn | ||
| Net Debt % GDP | Sep | 70.0% | 69.5% | 69.3% | ||
| National Unemployment Rate | Sep | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | ||
| Chile | Overnight Rate Target | 27-Oct | 4.50% | 4.50% | 4.50% | Oil up 25% since September lifts inflation risks, while consumption and investment fell in Q3. |
| Unemployment Rate | Sep | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | ||
| Retail Sales (YoY) | Sep | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | ||
| Copper Production Total | Sep | 387,870.0 | – | 369,500.0 | ||
| Colombia | National Unemployment Rate | Sep | 8.0% | – | 9.4% | |
| Urban Unemployment Rate | Sep | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.1% | ||
| Overnight Lending Rate | 30-Oct | – | 12.25% | 12.25% | ||
| Mexico | Trade Balance | Sep | -606.1m | -397.4m | 605.4m | |
| International Reserves Weekly (USD) | 23-Oct | 257,016m | – | 257,077m | ||
| GDP NSA (YoY) | 3Q P | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | ||
| GDP SA (QoQ) | 3Q P | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% |
Source information is at the end of the document.
Argentina: The government and IMF staff reached agreement on the third Extended Fund Facility (EFF) review, which would unlock around USD 900m once approved by the board in early December. The IMF said net reserve accumulation beat the end-June target by around USD 4bn and kept the 2026 primary surplus target at 1.4% of GDP, with no clear policy changes. Separately, the USD 3bn Vaca Muerta Oil Sur export pipeline is 85% complete, with first shipments due in March-April 2027 and capacity rising from 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) towards 550,000 bpd by end-2027.
Brazil: President Lula da Silva won a fourth term with 51.8% of the vote in a surprise runoff victory over Flávio Bolsonaro, whose Liberal Party recognised the result. The BRL fell around 10% to BRL 5.60/USD and the Ibovespa triggered a circuit breaker. Brazilian stocks ended the week nearly 25% down in USD terms. Fitch said Lula’s re-election adds fiscal uncertainty and could limit the Selic easing cycle, warning a failure to improve fiscal credibility could lead to a downgrade from ‘BB’. However, the Liberal Party will hold the largest caucus in both houses of Congress, making the choice of finance minister a key signal. Flávio left Brazil for Miami despite a Supreme Court order to surrender his passports.
Chile: Capstone Copper announced more than USD 3bn of investment over four years to roughly double its Chilean copper output to 300,000 tonnes a year by 2031, led by the USD 2.3bn greenfield Santo Domingo copper-iron project and expansions at Mantoverde. The pipeline of copper investment is strong but should help Chile return to previous output peaks rather than drive a boom, given lagging project execution and falling mine productivity.
Colombia: The government raised USD 5.2bn in global bonds across 2032, 2037 and 2056 tranches at yields of 7.05-8.15%, its largest external transaction, with orders of USD 16bn and pricing below initial guidance. The issue follows an increase in the 2026 deficit forecast to 7.2% of GDP from 5.3%. The government also sent its Economic Rescue Bill to Congress, combining spending caps and a debt-anchored fiscal rule with a lower corporate tax rate, a 36-38% rate for the financial sector and a revived wealth tax, but dropping the 2.2% of GDP spending cut target announced in August.
Mexico: Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard acknowledged that the US midterms are unlikely to bring lower tariffs on steel, aluminium and vehicles, as they raise significant revenue for the US government, a shift from earlier optimism about a deal. Separately, Deputy Finance Minister María del Carmen Bonilla, seen as a frontrunner to become finance minister, said cutting the fiscal deficit is the government’s top priority.
Central and Eastern Europe
Fuel tax cuts drove monthly deflation in Poland
| Country | Event | Period | Actual | Survey | Prior/Revised | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Czechia | GDP (QoQ) | 3Q A | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | |
| GDP (YoY) | 3Q A | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | ||
| Hungary | PPI (YoY) | Sep | 6.9% | – | 4.8% | |
| Trade Balance (EUR) | Sep | 907m | – | 46m | ||
| GDP NSA (YoY) | 3Q P | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | Near-stagnant q/q, industry the largest contributor. | |
| Poland | CPI (MoM) | Oct P | -0.4% | -0.1% | 0.7% | Fuel prices fell 9.7% mom after fuel tax cuts, returning CPI to the top of the target band. |
| CPI (YoY) | Oct P | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | ||
| Russia | Retail Sales Real (YoY) | Sep | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | |
| Unemployment Rate | Sep | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | ||
| Industrial Production (YoY) | Sep | 1.8% | -0.3% | -0.6% | ||
| CPI (WoW) | 26-Oct | 0.08% | – | 0.05% | ||
| CPI Weekly YTD | 26-Oct | 6.24% | – | 6.15% | ||
| Gold and Forex Reserve (USD) | 23-Oct | 729.6bn | – | 723.2bn |
Source information is at the end of the document.
Hungary: The government will postpone the inflation indexation of fuel excise taxes by six months to 1 July 2027, citing high fuel prices. Indexation will be lower next year at 1.2% than this year’s 4.3%, adding around HUF 2.5 per litre to petrol and HUF 2.4 to diesel, and should create a base effect in CPI when it takes effect.
Ukraine: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is ready to discuss territorial issues with Russia at leaders’ level, an apparent shift under US pressure after Washington cut air defence missile supplies and slowed Starlink for the military. He ruled out neutrality and limits on an army he wants to keep at 800,000. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Russia is ready to resume talks with the US and Ukraine after 4 November, possibly in Abu Dhabi.
Central Asia, Middle East & Africa
Egypt hiked rates for the first time since 2024
| Country | Event | Period | Actual | Survey | Prior/Revised | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt | Lending Rate | 29-Oct | 21.00% | – | 20.00% | First hike since March 2024, a surprise, to anchor expectations as the pound hit record lows. |
| Deposit Rate | 29-Oct | 20.00% | 19.00% | 19.00% | ||
| Qatar | CPI (YoY) | Aug | – | – | 4.0% | |
| GDP Constant Prices (YoY) | 1Q | – | – | 2.0% | ||
| Saudi Arabia | M3 Money Supply (YoY) | Sep | 4.8% | – | 5.6% | |
| SAMA Net Foreign Assets SAR | Sep | 1,660.1bn | – | 1,740.5bn | ||
| South Africa | Money Supply M3 (YoY) | Sep | 7.9% | – | 8.9% | |
| PPI (YoY) | Sep | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | Petroleum products led, Oct fuel hikes add pressure. | |
| Trade Balance Rand | Sep | 19.8bn | 16.4bn | 19.0bn | ||
| Türkiye | Trade Balance (USD) | Sep | -5.16bn | -5.20bn | -5.25bn | |
| Foreign Tourist Arrivals (YoY) | Sep | 0.4% | – | 0.0% |
Source information is at the end of the document.
Egypt: The central bank raised its key rates by 100bps in a surprise move, its first hike since 2024, taking the overnight deposit rate to 20.0% and the lending rate to 21.0%. It cited rising inflationary pressures, risk-off sentiment and global volatility, as portfolio outflows resumed and the pound hit record lows. It still expects inflation to return to its 5-9% target range by Q4 2027, with GDP growth stable at around 4.7% in Q3.
Kenya: The government urged counties to step up flood preparedness as El Niño rains intensify, warning above-average rainfall could extend into January 2027. Officials estimate up to 1.5 million people could be affected by flooding, including around 500,000 who could be displaced, and activated a national emergency response plan on 5 October.
Nigeria: Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele unveiled a draft National Economic Policy Framework to end policy reversals, including mandatory impact assessments before major tax and tariff changes and an annual scorecard tracking real wages, jobs and poverty. He reiterated the target of bringing inflation, at 14.6% in September, into low single digits before end-2027 to allow single-digit interest rates.
Saudi Arabia: Saudi Aramco has raised the East-West pipeline’s crude capacity to around 7m bpd from 5m bpd before the war, and a temporary conversion of a gas pipeline adds a further 1.2m bpd until May 2027, taking export capacity to the Red Sea to about 8.2m bpd. A further expansion to around 9m bpd is under consideration. In the UAE, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is fast-tracking a twin Habshan-Fujairah pipeline to double export capacity outside Hormuz to around 3.6m bpd.
Türkiye: Minutes of the October meeting, at which the central bank cut its policy rate by 100bps to 36%, said monetary policy will be tightened if the inflation outlook deteriorates significantly and persistently, with decisions taken meeting by meeting. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said underlying inflation has softened but expects higher food and energy prices to lift monthly CPI in October, while core inflation remains more moderate.
Developed Markets
The Fed held rates, but indicated further hikes likely
| Country | Event | Period | Actual | Survey | Prior/Revised | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | M3 Money Supply (YoY) | Sep | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | |
| ECB Deposit Facility Rate | 29-Oct | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | ||
| ECB Main Refinancing Rate | 29-Oct | 2.65% | 2.65% | 2.65% | ||
| ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 29-Oct | 2.90% | 2.90% | 2.90% | ||
| GDP SA (QoQ) | 3Q A | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.6% | ||
| GDP SA (YoY) | 3Q A | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.2% | ||
| Unemployment Rate | Sep | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | ||
| Japan | Tokyo CPI (YoY) | Oct | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | |
| Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) | Oct | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | ||
| Jobless Rate | Sep | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | ||
| Job-To-Applicant Ratio | Sep | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | ||
| Retail Sales (YoY) | Sep | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | ||
| BOJ Target Rate | 30-Oct | 1.25% | 1.25% | 1.25% | ||
| UK | Mortgage Approvals | Sep | 53.4k | 54.0k | 54.8k | |
| Nationwide House PX (MoM) | Oct | 0.0% | -0.2% | -0.3% | ||
| Nationwide House Px NSA (YoY) | Oct | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | ||
| United States | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | Sep | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | |
| Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | Oct | 13.4 | 8.8 | 9.8 | ||
| Building Permits | Sep F | 1,398k | 1,400k | 1,400k | ||
| Durable Goods Orders | Sep P | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.1% | ||
| Durables Ex Transportation | Sep P | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | ||
| FHFA House Price Index (MoM) | Aug | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||
| Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | Oct | -2.0 | 0.0 | -2.0 | ||
| Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | Oct | 91.7 | 81.0 | 84.2 | ||
| New Home Sales | Sep | 676k | 651k | 680k | ||
| MBA Mortgage Applications | 23-Oct | 3.4% | – | -5.3% | ||
| Wholesale Inventories (MoM) | Sep P | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | ||
| FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 28-Oct | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.00% | 10-2 vote, Cook and Hammack wanted a hike, with a December hike now around 75% priced. | |
| FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 28-Oct | 3.75% | 3.75% | 3.75% | ||
| Personal Income | Sep | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | ||
| Personal Spending | Sep | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | ||
| PCE Price Index (YoY) | Sep | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | ||
| Core PCE Price Index (MoM) | Sep | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | ||
| Core PCE Price Index (YoY) | Sep | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | ||
| Initial Jobless Claims | 24-Oct | 194k | 198k | 195k | ||
| Continuing Claims | 17-Oct | 1,701k | 1,720k | 1,722k | ||
| GDP Annualized (QoQ) | 3Q A | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | Inventories and government offset a 3.3pp trade drag, as imports surged 19.7% annualised. | |
| Personal Consumption | 3Q A | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | ||
| GDP Price Index | 3Q A | 2.3% | 3.2% | 6.1% | ||
| Core PCE Price Index (QoQ) | 3Q A | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | ||
| Employment Cost Index | 3Q | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
Source information is at the end of the document.
Benchmark Performance
| Emerging Markets | Month to date | Quarter to date | Year to date | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSCI EM | -8.0% | -8.0% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 22.3% | 6.9% |
| MSCI EM ex-China | -8.3% | -8.3% | 25.6% | 28.4% | 27.1% | 11.4% |
| MSCI EMEA | -4.2% | -4.2% | 0.9% | 3.7% | 16.1% | 0.7% |
| MSCI Latam | -7.6% | -7.6% | 6.1% | 13.7% | 14.3% | 12.4% |
| MSCI Asia | -8.2% | -8.2% | 15.4% | 15.2% | 23.7% | 7.2% |
| MSCI China | -7.0% | -7.0% | -18.0% | -21.1% | 8.7% | -4.1% |
| MSCI India | 1.2% | 1.2% | -13.9% | -13.6% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| MSCI EM Growth | -10.2% | -10.2% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 21.4% | 4.4% |
| MSCI EM Value | -5.9% | -5.9% | 19.4% | 22.0% | 23.0% | 9.6% |
| MSCI EM Small Cap | -8.4% | -8.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 13.8% | 5.8% |
| MSCI Frontier | -1.0% | -1.0% | 8.7% | 15.1% | 24.5% | 6.8% |
| GBI-EM-GD | -0.7% | -0.7% | -0.2% | 2.7% | 8.1% | 2.7% |
| GBI-EM China | 1.2% | 1.2% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 3.2% |
| EM FX spot | -1.2% | -1.2% | -2.7% | -1.1% | 0.5% | -1.6% |
| ELMI+ (1-3m NDF) | -0.6% | -0.6% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| EMBI GD | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 10.7% | 2.2% |
| EMBI GD IG | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.3% | -1.3% | 6.5% | -1.1% |
| EMBI GD HY | 0.6% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 15.0% | 5.6% |
| CEMBI BD | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 8.0% | 2.4% |
| CEMBI BD IG | 1.1% | 1.1% | -0.2% | 0.3% | 6.7% | 1.0% |
| CEMBI BD HY | -0.4% | -0.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 10.0% | 4.5% |
| Global Backdrop | Month to date | Quarter to date | Year to date | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSCI ACWI | -1.6% | -1.6% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 22.3% | 10.1% |
| MSCI World (DM) | -0.8% | -0.8% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 22.3% | 10.5% |
| S&P 500 | -0.9% | -0.9% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 23.4% | 12.1% |
| DXY Index** | -0.2% | 0.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | -1.4% | 1.6% |
| EUR* | 0.4% | -1.2% | -5.8% | -4.3% | 0.0% | -2.4% |
| JPY* | -0.2% | -0.6% | -3.2% | -5.2% | -5.6% | -9.9% |
| CRY Index** | 0.0% | 0.2% | 37.6% | 35.9% | 13.4% | 11.4% |
| Brent** | -7.8% | 4.8% | 78.3% | 66.7% | 7.7% | 5.1% |
| Gold** | 0.8% | -6.1% | -9.6% | -2.4% | 25.3% | 16.9% |
| Bitcoin** | 0.3% | -7.1% | -11.4% | -29% | 30.6% | 4.2% |
| 1-3yr UST | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| 3-5yr UST | 1.8% | 1.8% | -0.3% | 0.4% | 4.4% | 0.9% |
| 7-10yr UST | 3.1% | 3.1% | -1.8% | -1.3% | 4.8% | -1.2% |
| 10yr+ UST | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.9% | -4.1% | 4.4% | -6.7% |
| 10yr+ Germany | 4.1% | 4.1% | -1.1% | -4.3% | 0.1% | -8.6% |
| 10yr+ Japan | 3.6% | 3.6% | -7.1% | -11.6% | -7.5% | -7.7% |
| Global Agg.*** | 1.4% | 1.4% | -1.3% | -0.8% | 4.7% | -1.5% |
| US Agg. IG*** | 2.4% | 2.4% | -0.5% | -0.1% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| EU Agg. IG*** | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.6% | -2.1% | 2.8% | -1.9% |
| US Corp HY*** | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 8.6% | 3.7% |
| EU Corp HY*** | -1.1% | -1.1% | -0.7% | -0.2% | 6.4% | 2.7% |
Source and notations for all tables in this document
Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan, Barclays, Merrill Lynch, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Thomson Reuters, MSCI. As at latest data available on publication date.
*EMBI GD and EMBI GD HY Yield/Spread ex-default yields and spreads calculated by Ashmore. Defaulted EMBI securities includes: Ethiopia, Ghana, Lebanon, Sri Lanka, and Venezuela.
**Price only. Does not include carry.
***Global Indices from Bloomberg. Price to Earnings: 12 months blended-forward.
Index Definitions
VIX Index: Chicago Board Options Exchange SPX Volatility Index. DXY Index: The Dollar Index. CRY Index: Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRM Commodity Index.
Figures for more than one year are annualised other than in the case of currencies, commodities and the VIX, DXY and CRY which are shown as percentage change.