Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Volatility is back

By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
  • Markets in panic mode this morning after position unwinding…
  • …coincided with economic data softening at a faster pace….
  • … leading to the first meaningful VIX spike since March 2022.
  • US interest rates pricing very large short-term cuts. Historically coincided with a recession when the yield curve normalised from inverted levels (dis-inverted).
  • US economy is indeed slowing, corroborated by manufacturing PMIs last week, but the sell-off may have moved ahead of itself, in our view.
  • US political risks and geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain elevated.
  • Tensions remain elevated in Venezuela. 
  • China’s activity still sluggish. 
  • Korean exports softened but expected to remain elevated.
  • Panama announced expenditure cuts to consolidate its large deficit.
  • Pakistan upgraded last week, Bangladesh and Kenya downgraded.
  • Ethiopia floated its currency. Protesters took to the streets in Nigeria.

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