- Markets in panic mode this morning after position unwinding…
- …coincided with economic data softening at a faster pace….
- … leading to the first meaningful VIX spike since March 2022.
- US interest rates pricing very large short-term cuts. Historically coincided with a recession when the yield curve normalised from inverted levels (dis-inverted).
- US economy is indeed slowing, corroborated by manufacturing PMIs last week, but the sell-off may have moved ahead of itself, in our view.
- US political risks and geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain elevated.
- Tensions remain elevated in Venezuela.
- China’s activity still sluggish.
- Korean exports softened but expected to remain elevated.
- Panama announced expenditure cuts to consolidate its large deficit.
- Pakistan upgraded last week, Bangladesh and Kenya downgraded.
- Ethiopia floated its currency. Protesters took to the streets in Nigeria.