Strait of Hormuz
By Gustavo Medeiros, Ben Underhill
The Emerging View

The Strait of Hormuz & the Vix shock

Emerging View examines the Strait of Hormuz tail-risk, rising energy prices and supply strains, comparing today’s backdrop with past oil shocks and assessing what the Iran-US conflict could mean for emerging market assets.

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Weekly investor research

Regime change in Hungary and positive election results in Peru

Markets focused on politics, energy and AI: Hungary and Peru point to more market-friendly outcomes, US pressure on Iranian oil raises risk, AI-led growth remains strong from the US to Korea, while Colombia was downgraded and Turkey’s outlook softened.
Video

WEBINAR: How are EM Frontier debt markets holding up?

Watch the replay of this insightful webinar where Gustavo Medeiros, Global Head of Research, and Alexis de Mones, Portfolio Manager for Emerging Markets Debt, discussed their views on the resilience of EM Frontier debt markets in the current environment.
Weekly investor research

Risk asset recovery on thin ice

Risk assets have rebounded since last Tuesday, but risks remain high as Trump’s Iran deadline looms. Strong US payrolls suggest the cyclical upswing remains intact, while several EM policymakers kept a cautious stance on rates, fuel and energy.

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Weekly investor research

Global PMIs shows supply chain bottlenecks persist

Global PMIs declined, dragged down by Covid-19 delta variant concerns as supply chain bottlenecks kept price pressures. The Brazilian Congress approved a tax reform as the government aims for a steep fiscal consolidation.
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Market Commentary

EM 2021 real GDP growth revised higher

Sell-side economists revised real GDP growth higher in July across two-thirds of emerging markets (EM) and frontier markets (FM) countries, while lower revisions affected one-third of EM economies.
Weekly investor research
Weekly investor research

Inflation peaking in EM

Inflation surprised to the downside across most large EM economies in June.
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Weekly investor research

Temporary dip in EM PMIs amid rapid vaccine rollout

Emerging Market (EM) manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined 0.7 to 51.3 in June. The Chinese monetary policy committee signalled monetary policy should remain accommodative.